TVK President Vijay is trying hard to cobble up a majority | Photo Credit: RAGU R

The emergence of C Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) as the single-largest party in the Tamil Nadu Assembly election, short of the halfway mark, has predictably triggered coalition cat-and-mouse games. With 108 seats in a 234-member Assembly, Vijay finds himself tantalisingly close to power but dependent on a fragile and ideologically disparate set of potential allies to cross the majority mark of 118. The Congress, with five seats, has already shifted from the DMK-led alliance to back TVK, while efforts are underway to rope in smaller parties such as the VCK, DMDK and the Left parties to fashion a narrow majority.

The AIADMK, despite its tally of 47 seats and support from allies including the BJP, PMK and AMMK, remains isolated from all viable combinations. What has emerged, therefore, is not merely a fractured verdict but the prospect of an inherently unstable governing arrangement. In this context, Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar’s insistence that Vijay furnish letters of support from 118 MLAs before being invited to form the government assumes significance. Constitutionally, the position is unimpeachable. Yet, one cannot help but point out that the caution on display in Chennai stands in sharp contrast to the elasticity with which gubernatorial discretion has been exercised elsewhere. In Maharashtra in 2019, Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari swore in Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar before their majority had been conclusively demonstrated. In Karnataka in 2018, Governor Vajubhai Vala invited BS Yediyurappa to form the government despite the BJP lacking a majority. In Goa and Manipur in 2017, too, the BJP was invited to form governments even though the Congress had emerged as the single-largest party. Arguably, Raj Bhavans often function less as neutral constitutional offices and more as politically contingent institutions.

Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu is entering a potentially volatile phase — created by a fragmented mandate amidst an increasingly assertive Union government in Opposition-ruled States. Such situations demand not just electoral legitimacy, but also political acumen and skill. Vijay may possess the aura of an anti-establishment challenger — but charisma alone has rarely proved enough to sustain political authority in India’s complex federal order. The country has, over the decades, witnessed the rise of several political unicorns, from NT Rama Rao to Chiranjeevi and Pawan Kalyan, and more recently Arvind Kejriwal. Their trajectories have varied sharply. NTR demonstrated an instinctive grasp of governance and welfare politics that allowed him to reshape Andhra Pradesh’s political imagination, while others struggled to convert popular support into governance capacity.

Vijay lacks experience or organisational grounding. To navigate hard realities of governance, he will require dependable allies, a disciplined organisation and a degree of political acumen that can only be forged through negotiation and compromise. That seems a tall order right now.

Published on May 7, 2026