India’s wheat production in the current crop year (July-June) is likely to be close to 120 million tonnes (mt), exceeding the government’s target of 119 mt, due mainly to higher acreage and conducive weather throughout the season. However, in some areas where the crop was planted late, the yield may be impacted by the rise in temperature.

“Production is projected to be around 120 mt, according to both manual and digital surveys, and similar feedback was also received from wheat-growing states at the recently held meeting to plan the official procurement,” a senior official said. The wheat output in 2024-25 was 117.95 mt.

The Agriculture Ministry is likely to release this week the second advance estimates of production of crops, including wheat, mustard, chana (gram) and masur (lentil) grown in the rabi season. According to the first estimates, released in the last week of November, foodgrain output in the kharif season is estimated to be 173.33 mt, which includes 124.5 mt of rice, 7.41 mt of pulses, 28.3 mt of maize, and 13.11 mt of nutri cereals.

Estimates for procurement for the ensuing 2026-27 rabi marketing season (RMS), which will commence from April 1, have been fixed at 30.3 mt for wheat, 7.6 mt of rabi-grown rice, and 0.78 mt of maize and millets, the Food and Public Distribution (DFPD) Ministry said March 6.

The estimates were arrived at in the day-long meeting of the State Food Secretaries, chaired by Food Secretary, Sanjeev Chopra. Factors impacting procurement, including public distribution and storage of food grains, were reviewed during the meeting, the Ministry said. The government also said sufficient packaging material would be provided for smooth purchase of the crops, for which 7.83 lakh bales of jute (of 180 kg each bale) and 9.22 lakh bales of HDPE bags will be allotted to the agencies.

India’s higher wheat production may help the country to export the grain. For the first time after almost a four-year ban, exports were recently allowed with the government permitting 2.5 mt.

Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said in its latest report that the global wheat production is expected to decline in 2026 by nearly 3 per cent to around 810 mt in 2026, due to lower acreage and lower yield than 2025.

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that maximum (day) temperatures were in the range of 38-41 Degree Celsius ((5.1°C or more than normal) at many places over west Rajasthan and isolated places in east Rajasthan, a few places over Gujarat and Haryana in last 24 hours. IMD also said that temperatures were 35-38°C at many places over madhya Maharashtra, east Madhya Pradesh, a few places in west Madhya Pradesh. The highest maximum temperature in plains was 40.9°C at Akola, Maharashtra.

However, as minimum (night) temperatures were in the range of 14–18°C, though above normal, over key wheat growing Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, the crop may not be affected, some experts said.

The weather bureau has predicted day temperatures likely to continue to remain above normal by 5-7°C over Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh during next 2 days till 10th March, and by 4-6°C more than normal over plains of northwest India, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh during next 3 days.

Published on March 9, 2026