Gold prices continued their downward trend on Monday, hovering near one-month lows as a stronger US dollar and elevated crude oil prices weighed on sentiment, even as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz prevented a sharper selloff.

MCX Gold is currently trading near ₹1,51,000 per 10 grams, pulling back from a recent multi-week high of ₹1,55,000. On the international front, Comex Gold is holding just above the $4,600 level, having declined more than 2 per cent over the past two weeks. The metal finds immediate resistance at $4,640–$4,670, with support at $4,570 below which prices could slip toward $4,500.

The primary headwind for gold remains the hawkish pivot across major central banks. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at its last meeting but signalled rising inflation risks, with outgoing Governor Jerome Powell cautioning markets about persistent inflationary pressures while expressing measured optimism on economic growth. The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan have also signalled potential rate increases, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate environment that typically pressures non-yielding assets like gold.

Surging crude oil prices have compounded the problem. WTI Crude has rallied more than 7 per cent over two consecutive weeks and settled above the $100-per-barrel mark, driven by supply disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has reiterated control over the strategic waterway, and while Tehran submitted a revised peace proposal via Pakistan, US President Donald Trump said he remained unsatisfied with the offer. The US also confirmed it would maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Energy-driven inflation fears have triggered fresh hawkish signals from central banks, indirectly weighing on bullion demand.

Outflows from gold exchange-traded funds have added to selling pressure. However, the metal found some footing on Friday after Iran signalled a proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz, which eased supply concerns temporarily and also pulled the US dollar marginally lower.

Silver is broadly flat, trading near $75 per ounce internationally and around ₹2,50,000–₹2,51,000 per kg on MCX, consolidating after a sharp prior upmove. Industrial demand and safe-haven interest are providing support at lower levels. Analysts at Axis Direct have set a buy recommendation for MCX Silver around ₹2,47,000 with targets of ₹2,80,000 and ₹2,90,000.

Market focus this week shifts to PMI data from major economies and US jobs market figures, which are expected to provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory and set the near-term direction for precious metals.

Published on May 4, 2026