The fate of 599 ships carrying nearly 20,000 seafarers and billions in cargo remains uncertain after direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough, prolonging disruptions in the critical chokepoint of Strait of Hormuz.

Despite a ceasefire announcement made on April 7, vessel movement through the chokepoint has not normalised.

Data from the UK-based Lloyd’s List shows that just 15 crossings on April 7 and six on April 9 were recorded, underscoring continued operational risks and uncertainty. Before the conflict, nearly 140 ships used to cross the Strait per day. However, the number declined to 20 on March 1 and the average daily transit continued to be between 5 and 15 since then.

Out of the stranded fleet, 285 are tankers, 177 bulk carriers, 57 container ships, and the rest gas and general cargo vessels. There is no clarity on how many ships are bound for India.

Many ships remain unable to exit the region as Iran-linked controls and messaging around passage persist, said Lloyds List.

While some LPG tankers, including India-flagged vessels, have managed to transit under tighter controls, many ships remain stranded west of the Strait awaiting clearance, indicating that trade flows continue but under significant constraints, said sources.

Iranian officials have stated that vessels must coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to pass, while some ships have reportedly received warnings against unauthorised transit.

Adding to uncertainty are reports of a potential “toll” regime, which, though not formally announced, has raised legal and sanctions-related concerns among shipowners, it said.

For India, the implications are significant. With nearly 88 per cent of its crude oil imported—and about 46 per cent sourced from West Asia—the country is highly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to a Rubix Data Sciences–Vayana TradeXchange report, every $10 per barrel rise in crude prices could inflate India’s annual import bill by $13–14 billion, with ripple effects on inflation and trade balances.

Export segments are also beginning to feel the strain. Rice shipments are particularly vulnerable to rising freight costs and shipping delays, while remittances—38 per cent of which come from Gulf countries—could face volatility if regional economic conditions worsen, said the report.

Published on April 12, 2026