Corn prices, which have dropped to a four-week low currently, will likely drop in the near-term as the ceasefire has ended the threat to the availability of nitrogen fertiliser supply, according to analysts.

“In our view, prices are likely to ease in the near term as the US-Iran ceasefire removes the most immediate source of upside risk that had been embedded in corn prices, namely the threat of sustained disruption to nitrogen fertiliser supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

The ceasefire, a clear negative for near-term price sentiment, does not eliminate the risks that the conflict introduced, it said. 

Price forecast

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), since March 10, global export bids for corn from major origins were little changed, excluding the US. “Argentine bids were up $1 to $209/tonne as strong export demand slightly offset harvest pressure. Brazilian bids declined by $4 to $225. Changes in Brazilian bids largely reflect shifts in other exporters as Brazilian supplies decline seasonally,” it said. 

Ukraine bids rose $2 to $227 as stronger demand from nearby buyers supported bids. US bids fell $4 to $217 as its national grain stocks report estimated record high corn stocks in all positions on March 1. 

BMI said it was raising its annual average second-month CBOT-listed corn price forecast for 2026 from 450 US cents a bushel to 458.2 cents. This is in anticipation of an average price of 453 cents in Q2, 462 cents in Q3 and 470 cents in Q4. Currently, corn futures are ruling at 442.69 cents a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). 

Bearish US report

ING Think, the financial and economic analysis wing of Dutch multinational financial services firm ING, said the global outlook has turned more bearish, with the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report pegging 2025-26 ending stocks higher at 294.8 million tonnes, above expectations of 293.2 million tonnes. 

The USDA has projected the 2025-26 corn crop at 1.32 billion tonne compared with 1.23 billion tonne in 2024-26. Estimates have been raised since last month as the crop in India, Indonesia and South Africa is expected to be higher. 

According to the International Grains Council, corn production in 2026-27 could drop to 1.30 billion tonne, while consumption may rise by 13 million tonne from this season to 1.315 billion tonne.

Corn production is expected to be lower, particularly in the US, next year as farmers shift to other crops since corn requires more nutrient-based fertilisers, which are currently pricey. 

Plantings under-estimated?

“The retreat in US corn acreage is expected to curb output heading into the 2027 season, narrowing the production balance to a deficit of 5.5 million tonne and drawing stocks-to-use down from 21.8 per cent to 20.9 per cent,” said BMI.

It said the USDA has underestimated the scale of the acreage shift away from corn in the 2026-27 season in its March 31 prospective plantings report. The report estimated US corn acreage at 95.3 million acres, down 3.45 million acres. 

Stating that the ceasefire agreement remains fragile, BMI said the pace at which shipping traffic normalises through the Strait of Hormuz would be critical in determining how quickly fertiliser supply chains recover.

Any problem with the resumption of the shipping tariff could keep supplies tight. The research agency said elevated Brent crude prices continue to offer support to the corn complex through the ethanol linkage. Crude oil will provide a modest demand-side floor for corn, particularly through Q2 as the US driving season approaches.

More risk for Brazil

BMI said the fertilizer supply disruption poses more risk for Brazil and global corn balance. Brazil is the largest import of fertilizer in the world as it depends on meeting 85 per cent of its demand through imports.

Besides, the Strait of Hormuz hurdle fertilizers face risk from the ban on phosphate exports from China until August. 

Any deterioration in the fertiliser supply chain could alter the balance in the global corn market and provide upside support, said BMI.  

The research agency said the balance of risks to its forecast is skewed to the upside, with the foremost being the durability of the ceasefire agreement. A faster-than-expected recovery in supplies could be the downside risk.

Published on April 10, 2026