In early April — after a month of disruption around one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints — US President Donald Trump wrote that with “a little ​more time, we can easily OPEN THE ​HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A ⁠FORTUNE.”

Three weeks on, transiting through the Strait of Hormuz has instead become virtually impossible for the first time in history. Trump has imposed a US blockade of Iran-linked ships, Tehran is using its “mosquito fleet” of gunboats to close down the waterway in response — and shipowners say a return to normal shipments is months away, at best.

Daily transits, already limited since the start of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, are now near zero. That compares to a peacetime average of around 135.

For weeks, vessel owners and crews had to deal with one major hurdle to attempt an exit: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as Tehran tightened control of the strait. They now have US warships interdicting vessels — some far from the Persian Gulf — and increasingly unpredictable Iranian gunboats, reacting.

Several shipping officials in the region said the US blockade has had the effect of making the area more volatile, as Iran redoubles efforts to keep the strait shut.

“What the US is doing, with its blockade, looks to be expanding the area” of risk for ships, said Rajalingam Subramaniam, chief executive officer at Fleet Management Limited, which has more than 400 seafarers trapped inside the gulf. “There’s this posturing going on, and it has actually created more uncertainty.”

Iran’s resilience

A narrow maritime corridor connecting oil and gas producers in the gulf with the world, Hormuz has become the key flashpoint in the eight-week war with Iran — a daily reminder of the country’s asymmetric ability to impose global economic pain, and a symbol of the intractable nature of the conflict, as both sides dig in.

“Hormuz is definitely a tool of leverage and a metric of whether Iranian responses are coordinated,” said Rachel Ziemba, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “The US blockade was partly implemented to block Iran’s leverage, but ultimately Iran has some space and recent revenue to buy itself some time.”

Iran’s resilience is built on years of self-reliance, a regime structured to withstand shocks and income from recent oil shipments. The global economy has less time at its disposal.

Each passing day increases the financial impact of the conflict, not only for import-dependent Asia but for the world — including the US — as shortages and price spikes ripple through energy markets and global supply chains. 

Global impact

Crude output from the Persian Gulf nations — some of the world’s most important suppliers — is already 57 per cent below where it was before the war, according to Goldman Sachs analysts including Daan Struyven. Convalescence, even after a full reopening of the strait, could take months. “The recovery may be only partial after a prolonged closure,” they wrote in a note last week.

Demand destruction has already begun in gas markets, while fertilizer shortages will impact food production and prices for much of the rest of the year and beyond.

A long conflict also increases the challenge of unpicking a Gordian knot of Trump’s creation, with fresh negotiations yet to be agreed.

“We were hoping that this would come to an end relatively quickly in short term,” said Jotaro Tamura, president and chief executive officer of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. “But by having this situation for over more than seven weeks now, I think it’s realistic that we should expect that the resolution will take some time.”

The world, he said in Singapore last week, will not return to what it used to be.

Transits through Hormuz slowed dramatically almost immediately after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran at the end of February.

Workarounds soon began to emerge, though, including bilateral deals to secure safe passage for some carriers, and an idiosyncratic Iranian payment system. Iran’s own vessels, meanwhile, made it through, adding some barrels to the market.

A tentative ceasefire in early April cheered Western vessel owners, with A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s second-largest container liner, saying it was studying “transit opportunities”. On April 11, three supertankers exited, marking the largest number of non-Iranian oil exits since the war began. 

Then, Trump, frustrated at slow progress, announced his plan to blockade Iran.

The calculus initially appeared to work. Iran considered pausing sending shipments through so as not to test US warships and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later announced that the country would open the strait. But Trump made no move to lift his own blockade — angering key groups in Tehran.

Widening chaos

What ensued last week were chaotic days of vessels being attacked and seized — in one case, a sanctioned oil tanker was boarded in waters east of Sri Lanka, widening the theater of operation. On Saturday, the US Navy intercepted a carrier in the Arabian Sea just one day after Washington sanctioned it.

For those who manage the hundreds of ships still stuck in the gulf, a lasting conflict poses another major concern — the 20,000 seafarers on board those vessels.

Most are already working to provide relief through daily check-ins, counseling sessions, and simply by ensuring that they have sufficient food and water, according to shipowners and managers. Some crews have already been replaced as contracts come to an end, though finding new teams is challenging — and expensive.

Evacuation plans have been drawn up by some companies and even the International Maritime Organization. Without an end to hostilities, however, those remain theoretical at best.

“Today we have no reassurance whatsoever from governments,” said Alexander Saverys, chief executive officer of shipowner CMB.TECH. “We will only get that reassurance when we see that ships can pass through the strait in a safe and sustainable way.”

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Published on April 26, 2026