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India’s oil demand growth is expected to outpace the growth in refinery capacity additions till 2030, which could lead to a rise in imports of petroleum products and at the same time exports could witness contraction.

The world’s fourth largest refiner, with a capacity of more than 258 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), may add around 1.2 mb/d of refining capacity by the end of this decade, OPEC’s world oil outlook 2026 revealed.

Despite having the highest capacity additions in the medium term, the downstream market in India is expected to experience a relatively high deficit driven by increased oil demand, it added.

The OPEC report anticipates that India’s required refining capacity is set to increase significantly from 0.2 mb/d in 2026 to more than 1.3 mb/d in 2030, which is based on strong oil demand growth in the country.

At the same time, net potential incremental refining capacity increases from almost 0.3 mb/d in 2026 to around 1 mb/d in 2030, projects the report.

As a result, OPEC anticipates that the Indian downstream market is expected to shift from a broadly balanced market in 2026 and 2027 to an increasingly tight market from 2028 onwards, as refining capacity additions grow at a slower pace than oil demand.

“The deficit is expected to grow from around 0.1 mb/d in 2028 to approximately 0.4 mb/d in 2030, relative to the base year. Consequently, India’s downstream sector is likely to experience higher imports of non-refinery products and possibly reduced refinery product exports over this period, as it is already operating at high utilisation rate,” it added.

Overall, the OPEC report said that India is expected to account for the largest share by far of global refinery capacity additions, with more than 6 mb/d of projected to come online between 2026 and 2050.

This is supported by robust oil demand growth, as well as the government’s strategic objective of elevating India’s role as a global refining and refined-products export hub, with long-term plans to scale capacity up to 450 MTPA, it added.

Refinery runs

The largest increment in refinery runs is expected in India, on the back of strong oil demand growth and significant refinery capacity additions, said the report.

Refinery throughputs in India are expected to increase steadily from about 5.4 mb/d in 2025 to 10.7 mb/d in 2050, representing growth of 5.3 mb/d.

This growth is evenly distributed throughout the forecast period. However, refinery utilisation rates are expected to drop gradually from around 104 per cent in 2025 to 95.2 per cent by 2050.

This reflects significant refinery capacity expansions and assumes that older refineries will not be able to maintain their utilization rates at their highest levels, above 100 per cent.

Published on June 21, 2026