Conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
"The low-pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal lay over the same region at 8.30 am of today, the 12th May 2026, with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5km above mean sea level. It is likely to become more marked during the next 48 hours," said the IMD in its daily forecast.
Typically, the monsoon hits the Andaman and Nicobar around May 20, and it subsequently advances further west toward mainland India.
Kerala usually sees the onset of the monsoon on June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (June to September).
Earlier, the IMD had said that India might witness below-normal rainfall this year during the monsoon season.
The country is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall, while the long-period average (1971-2020) of seasonal rainfall over India is 87 cm.
According to the IMD, it could be due to the emergence of the El Nino conditions, which cause less rainfall in the country.
In its monthly forecast on May 1, the department had said that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific were evolving toward El Nino conditions.
Published on May 12, 2026