The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Thursday that high fertilizer prices are likely to worsen global food insecurity. It also noted that economic growth will be slower, even if the current peace proves durable.
“Food insecurity for another 45 million people or more given the transport disruptions, taking the total number of people in hunger to over 360 million, with the problem potentially worsening over time because of high fertilizer prices,” Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, said during her Spring Meetings 2026 Curtain Raiser speech. These meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group will take place in Washington, D.C., during the week of April 13-18, and will be attended by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, and DEA Secretary Anuradha Thakur.
Meanwhile, discussing the ripple effects of crude supply interruptions, Georgieva noted that oil refinery shutdowns have occurred due to the need to maintain minimum flow rates, with warning lights flashing red in many far-flung places. “Refined product shortages including for diesel and jet fuel, which have disrupted transportation, trade, and tourism in a world more interconnected than ever,” she said, while adding that supply chain disruptions have emerged due to industrial dependencies on materials such as sulphur, helium for silicon chipmaking and MRI imaging, and naphtha for plastics.
The IMF MD listed three main channels through which these shocks are playing out. The first is price impact and supply shortages; higher prices for key inputs feed into many consumer goods, lifting inflation. This, coupled with shortages, reduces demand by brute force. The second involves inflation expectations, which could break anchor and ignite a costly inflationary process. “Fortunately, longer-run expectations have not budged, this is very good and very important,” she said. The third channel is tightening financial conditions.
According to Georgieva, policymakers can assist in multiple ways, and they must be careful not to exacerbate the situation. “I appeal to all countries to reject go-it-alone actions — export controls, price controls, and so on — that can further upset global conditions: don’t pour gasoline on the fire. Beyond that, as in past shocks, alertness and agility are key,” she said. The challenge will be to detect when changing conditions transition the world from one state to another.
wait and watch
For now, “there is value in waiting and watching, with central banks stressing their commitment to price stability but otherwise staying on hold — with a stronger bias to action if credibility is in question,” she said. Furthermore, fiscal authorities should provide targeted and temporary support to the vulnerable, aligned with their medium-term fiscal frameworks. “If inflation expectations threaten to break anchor and ignite a costly inflation spiral, then central banks should step in firmly with rate hikes,” she added, reiterating that fiscal support should remain targeted and temporary.
Georgieva expects near-term demand for IMF balance-of-payments support to rise to between $20 billion and $50 billion, with the lower bound prevailing if the ceasefire holds. “This range would be much higher were it not for the sound policymaking of many emerging market economies, including some of the largest ones, over the decades. And second we are well resourced to meet this shock,” she assured.
Published on April 9, 2026