A sole silver lining in an otherwise bleak, El Niño-shadowed monsoon outlook lies in the steady assessment of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts that points to a possible intensification of pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kerala, an early portent of a timely onset of the south-west monsoon.
Thunderstorm activity is set to gather urgency over the south-western state around April 22 (Wednesday next), roughly 40 days ahead of the normal June 1 onset of the monsoon in Kerala.
These spells are expected to culminate in what in weather parlance is known as ‘pre-monsoon rain peak’ during the crucial 40-day window.
Rain-bearing clouds
A timely initiation of this phase is widely seen as critical to ensuring an on-schedule onset of the monsoon at the close of the window.
The pre-monsoon peak typically manifests as a rain-bearing cloud band stretching eastward from Kerala into the Bay of Bengal. Satellite imageries from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts projected that this band is likely to take proper shape from Wednesday,
These thunderstorms may gather strength through the subsequent seven-day period and persisting into the end of the month. Meanwhile, the Kal Baisakhi thunderstorm season is in full swing over East and North-East India with north-westerly winds blasting in and feeding on moisture from the Bay of Bengal.
The ‘Kal Baisakhi’ thunderstorm season is in full flow over North-East India and Bangladesh marked by thunderstorms, lightning and hail | Photo Credit: www.windy.com
Ring of fire
Abundant moisture is set to fuel the ensuing “ring of fire” of lightning, hail and thunderstorms. The associated winds have already triggered storm activity across parts of the hills and plains of north-west and east India, offering a measure of relief from the blistering heat.
The brief respite, however, is expected to last no more than a couple of days, with temperatures poised to climb again in the days immediately thereafter.
Heat wave conditions
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heatwave conditions in isolated pockets of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalaseema and Telangana on Saturday; over Odisha for next three days from Saturday; and over Jharkhand for three days from Sunday.
Hot and humid conditions are also likely to prevail in isolated pockets over Odisha during next six days; over Coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu for next four days; over Kerala and Mahe, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam for next three days; and over the plains of West Bengal, for five days beginning Sunday.
Published on April 17, 2026