The immediate trigger is the ceasefire deadline expiring Wednesday evening.

Gold prices are hovering in a narrow band on Wednesday as markets wait for clarity on US-Iran talks, with conflicting signals keeping both bulls and bears on the sidelines. Spot gold was trading at $4,794, while MCX Gold held within ₹1,53,500–₹1,54,000. Silver tracked gold lower, with Comex silver at $79.30 and MCX Silver hovering above ₹2,51,000.

The immediate trigger is the ceasefire deadline expiring Wednesday evening. US Vice President JD Vance is travelling to Pakistan for negotiations with Iran, but President Trump has stated it is “highly unlikely” he will extend the truce, and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until a deal is reached. The diplomatic path turned rockier over the weekend when Iran reimposed Strait restrictions citing US “breaches of trust,” IRGC gunboats fired on a transiting tanker, and the US seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman.

That sequence of events had driven WTI up over 6 per cent on Monday to around $91 per barrel and Brent to $97.5, reversing Friday’s sharp selloff when prices had briefly crashed to $80.6 and $86 respectively after Iran’s foreign minister declared the strait open. Brent was last trading near $95. The energy shock is the key headwind for gold — higher crude stokes inflation fears, which in turn reduces the probability of rate cuts, limiting appetite for non-yielding assets.

Renisha Chainani, head of research at Augmont, notes that gold has been rangebound between $4,750 and $4,850, with either side breakout likely delivering a 3–4 per cent directional move. On the downside, a breach of $4,800 on Comex exposes $4,720–$4,700. On the upside, a sustained move above $4,900 opens the path toward $5,000–$5,100.

The RBI meanwhile partially rolled back forex restrictions introduced on April 1, allowing banks to resume offering NDFs to corporations, though the $100 million Net Open Position limit for banks in INR onshore derivatives remains in place. The rupee ended Tuesday 20 paise weaker at 93.12 and opened around 93.10 on Wednesday.

Published on April 22, 2026