Early trends from the 126-member Assam Assembly at around noon on Monday point to a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma headed for a landslide second term.
According to trends available by 12 noon, the BJP was leading in around 80 seats, past the majority mark of 64, while the Indian National Congress trailed at 23 seats. Among regional players, the Bodoland People’s Front was ahead in 10 seats, Asom Gana Parishad in 9, while the All India United Democratic Front and Raijor Dal were leading in 2 seats each. These trends broadly align with early counting patterns showing the BJP establishing a commanding lead across the state.
Sarma strengthens grip across key constituencies
The trends underscore the consolidation of the BJP’s dominance in Assam, with Sarma emerging as the state’s central political figure. In key constituencies, Sarma was leading from Jalukbari by over 17,000 votes, reinforcing his stronghold in the Guwahati region. In a significant setback for the Congress, its state president, Gaurav Gogoi, was trailing from Jorhat by about 13,900 votes. Meanwhile, BJP’s Pradyot Bordoloi was leading from Dispur by a massive margin of over 33,000 votes, indicating a sweep in urban centres.
BJP poised to improve on 2021 performance
The scale of the BJP’s lead suggests that the party is on course not just to retain power, but to expand its footprint beyond its 2021 performance. In the 2021 Assam Assembly elections, the BJP won 60 seats on its own, while its alliance partners AGP and UPPL won 9 and 6 seats, respectively, and the Congress secured 29 seats, enabling the BJP-led NDA to return to power for a second consecutive term.
This election, however, appears to mark a sharper consolidation under Sarma. Political observers attribute this to a combination of organisational control, welfare delivery, and a highly polarised campaign.
Delimitation and identity politics shape backdrop
A key backdrop to the election has been the delimitation exercise carried out under Sarma’s tenure, which redrew constituency boundaries across Assam. The exercise is widely seen as having reduced the number and influence of Muslim-majority constituencies while rebalancing seats in favour of upper Assam and tribal belts, an issue that became politically contentious during the campaign.
Equally central to the BJP’s campaign was its sharp focus on identity politics, particularly targeting so-called “Miya” Muslims. The rhetoric around illegal immigration, land encroachment and eviction drives formed a core plank of the campaign, with opposition parties alleging that it deepened social polarisation in the state.
Stronger mandate likely for BJP
With counting still underway, the trends indicate that Sarma’s political strategy, combining governance messaging with identity mobilisation, has paid off decisively. If these trends hold, Assam is set to return a stronger mandate for the BJP, further entrenching Sarma’s position as one of the party’s most powerful regional leaders.
Published on May 4, 2026