The Dow Jones Industrial Average is managing to inch up every week. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite on the other hand are struggling to move up. The Dow Jones was up 0.6 per cent and the S&P 500 fell 1.95 per cent last week. The NASDAQ Composite was knocked down badly by 4.6 per cent. An overall picture on the US equity market shows that the rally is fizzling out. As such, the Dow Jones can turn down any time. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index look vulnerable to fall more.
The price action over the last couple of weeks indicate that the index is not getting a sustained rise above 52,000. Strong resistance is in the 52,500-53,000 region. We expect the upside to be capped at 53,000 for now. As long as the index stays below 53,000, there are good chances to see a fall to 49,000 in the coming weeks. A break below the intermediate support level of 51,270 can trigger this fall.
So, if the Dow moves above 52,000, there should be more caution rather than an increased bullishness. That is, market has to be looked from the sell side rather than considering it as an opportunity to buy.
The index is not getting fresh buyers to take it decisively above 7,600. The outlook is negative. Cluster of resistances are there in the broad 7,430-7,500. So, there are good chances for the index to trade below 7,500 itself going forward.
S&P 500 index can fall to 7,200-7,150 in the short-term. A bounce thereafter can take it back up to 7,250-7,300.
Ideally, the index has to breach 7,600 decisively to regain the bullish momentum. Only then the upside will open up to see 7,800 and higher levels. But looking at the charts, the fall to 7,150 is likely to happen first.
The short-term picture is weak. Immediate resistances are at 25,650 and 25,850. The outlook is bearish. NASDAQ Composite index can fall to 24,200-24,000 in the coming weeks. After this fall, a corrective rise to 25,000 is a possibility.
The level of 26,250 is a crucial resistance now. The index has to surpass this hurdle to bring back the bullishness. Only then a rise to 27,500-28,000 will come back into the picture again.
The dollar index (101.37) has come down slightly from the high of 101.80. The outlook is bullish. Cluster of supports are there in the 101-100.70 region which can limit the downside. Dollar index is likely to sustain above this support zone and reverse higher again. A rise to 102.80 can be seen in the short term.
From a medium-term perspective, the dollar index has potential to target 105-106 in the coming months. The prospects of a rate hike this year can support the greenback to strengthen going forward.
To negate this rise, the index has to decline below 100.70. If that happens, a fall to 99.50 can be seen.
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.38 per cent) is struggling to breach its resistance at 4.55 per cent. Immediate resistance is at 4.45 per cent. Failure to rise back above this resistance can keep the yield under pressure. A fall to 4.3-4.25 per cent can be seen in that case. A fresh rise thereafter can take the 10Yr higher to 4.5 per cent again.
A sustained rise above 4.55 per cent will be bullish to see 4.8 per cent on the upside over the medium term.
Published on June 27, 2026
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