Crude oil prices fell sharply last week, particularly on Friday on the news that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. However, uncertainties prevail over the same.
Nevertheless, Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($90.40/barrel) and crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹7,666/barrel) were down 5.1 per cent and 9.8 per cent respectively. Here is our analysis:
Brent crude oil futures, which was largely oscillating in the range of $94-100 in the recent sessions, breached the support at $94 on Friday. It marked a low of $86.09 before ending the session at $90.40.
Despite the sell-off, the contract managed to stay above the 50-day moving average, which is now at $89.20. So, from the current level, there might be a minor rally, possibly to the $96-100 range.
In case the downtrend resumes, Brent futures can drop to $85 or even to $80. But if $100 is breached, the price can rise to $105 or $110.
Crude oil futures (May) was charting a sideways trend between ₹8,250 and ₹8,750 recently. But on Friday, the contract broke below the support band between ₹8,250 and ₹8,000.
From the current level, there is a support ahead at ₹7,500, where the 50-day moving average coincides. On the back of this, there could be a rally to ₹8,250-8,750 range.
If the contract starts falling again, crude oil futures can drop to ₹6,500 or to ₹6,000. But in case the price surpasses the hurdle at ₹8,750, the upswing can extend to ₹9,500 or ₹10,000.
Trade strategy: Traders can buy crude oil futures now at ₹7,666. Target and stop-loss can be ₹9,500 and ₹7,150 respectively. But note that volatility can remain high and so, risk averse traders can stay out.
Published on April 18, 2026
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