The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index have surged for the third consecutive week. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were up 3.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively. The NASDAQ Composite index went up by 6.84 per cent.

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 have rallied 9.5 per cent and 11.9 per cent in the last three weeks. The NASDAQ Composite index on the other hand has surged 16.8 per cent.

The danger of seeing a fall-back stands negated now. Here is our analysis on how far the US benchmark indices can rise from here.

Dow Jones (49,447.43)

The rise above 48,900 last week is a very positive sign. The Dow Jones can test 49,900-50,000 this week. Failure to breach 50,000 on its first test can trigger a corrective fall to 49,000-48,500.

From a big picture, 48,500-48,000 is a strong support zone now. The bullish view will remain intact as long as the index sustains above 48,000. As such, the Dow can breach 50,000 eventually and rise to 51,000-52,000 in the coming weeks.

The bullish view will get negated only if the index declines below 48,000.

S&P 500 (7,126.06)

The index has surged well above the psychological 7,000 mark. However, a crucial resistance is around 7,200. Failure to break this resistance and a subsequent fall below 7,100 can drag the index down to 6,950 in the coming weeks.

A strong and sustained rise above 7,200 is needed to strengthen the momentum. If that happens, then the S&P 500 will have the potential to target 7,600 in the coming months.

The price action around 7,200 will need a close watch this week.

NASDAQ Composite (24,468.48)

The index has risen well above the crucial resistance level of 24,000. It is important for the NASDAQ Composite to sustain above the 24,000-23,950 support zone. If it does, then there is potential to see 26,500-27,500 on the upside in the coming months.

This bullish view will get negated if the index declines below 23,950. In that case, a fall back to 23,000-22,800 can be seen again.

Dollar outlook

The break below 98.60 and the fall to 97.50 almost happened last week. The dollar index (98.23) touched a low of 97.63 and then has bounced from there. The daily chart signals the absence of fresh sellers below 98. That leaves the near-term bias positive.

Resistance is in the 98.60-98.70 region. A break above it can give some relief and reduce the downside pressure. That in turn can take the dollar index up to 99.30-99.50 this week.

The dollar index will come under more selling pressure only if it declines below 97.50. If that happens, 96.70-96.50 can be seen on the downside.

Treasury Yield

The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.25 per cent) seems to be struggling to get a sustained break above 4.3 per cent. That leaves the yield vulnerable to break 4.2 per cent and fall to 4.15 per cent or even 4.1 per cent in the next few weeks.

After this fall, there are good chances for the 10Yr Yield to rise back towards 4.25 per cent again. It is important to see if this bounce is sustaining or not.

Ideally, the yield has to rise past 4.3 per cent to bring back our bullish view of seeing 4.5-4.6 per cent on the upside.

Published on April 18, 2026