The Reserve Bank of India's tightening of foreign exchange rules will help shield the rupee from pressures emanating from offshore ​markets, but traders may continue drawing pricing signals from those markets, a senior Axis Bank official ‌said.

A 4.5% fall in the Indian rupee since the breakout ​of the Iran war prompted the central bank to impose a ⁠cap on banks' net open FX positions in the onshore markets in late March.

The RBI also barred lenders from offering non-deliverable forward contracts to clients and stopped firms from ‌re-booking canceled FX contracts in order to curb speculation.

The rupee gained 2% last Thursday and traded 0.3% higher at 92.81 per dollar on ‌Monday.

"RBI has effectively broken the direct link between the onshore market and ‌the ⁠offshore market," said Neeraj Gambhir, executive director for treasury, markets and ⁠wholesale banking products at Axis Bank, on Thursday.

"If there is a lot of speculative activity in the offshore market against the INR, it will no longer translate into the onshore dollar demand and ​will not deplete RBI's FX ‌reserves."

The RBI first opened the NDF market to Indian banks in June 2020 and to resident Indians in June 2023, to deepen participation. The central bankopened up local access to the market despite reservations among a committee headed ‌by a former Deputy Governor.

Since opening the NDF market to local participants, ​the central bank has placed both informal and formal restrictions on accessibility.

"If we recall the FX market before the integration of offshore and ⁠onshore, the onshore pricing used to be heavily influenced by offshore," Gambhir said.

Gambhir reckons that if the RBI's measures don't end up delivering the desired outcomes, the ‌central bank mayturn to direct measures for shoring up dollar supply or curtailing some dollar demand.

In the past, the central bank has used dedicated dollar-buying windows for oil companies and facilities to mobilize foreign currency deposits from non-resident Indians when the rupee came under sustained pressure.

The rupee's recent weak run against the dollar does not pose a financial stability risk, according to Gambhir.

"The level of depreciation is ‌not in any way out of sync with what is happening in the rest of ​the world, particularly when you compare against other Asian and emerging markets which are also large importers of crude oil."

RATES ON HOLD

India's central ⁠bank is slated to announce its monetary policy decision on April 8. All but ⁠two out of 71 economists polled by Reuters expect the RBI to hold rates.

Gambhir shares that view, addingthat the central bank should ensure ‌surplus liquidity in the banking system.

The central bank is also due to present its first forecasts for growth and inflation for the 2026-27 financial ​year, that will likely account forspillover impact from the war in the Middle East.

Published on April 6, 2026