Markets opened lower on Tuesday, extending a three-session losing streak, as a cocktail of geopolitical tension, elevated crude oil prices, and a weakening rupee continued to sap investor confidence. The Sensex opened at 75,688.39, down from its previous close of 76,015.28, and was trading at 75,596.46, a decline of 418.82 points or 0.55 per cent, as of 9.17 am. The Nifty 50, which closed at 23,815.85 on Monday, opened at 23,722.60 and was trading at 23,725.85, lower by 90 points or 0.38 per cent. In the previous session, the Sensex had shed 1,313 points and the Nifty 50 had fallen 360 points — a drop of nearly 1.5 per cent.

The immediate trigger for the slide remains the collapse of US–Iran ceasefire talks. Former US President Donald Trump described the truce as being on "massive life support," pushing Brent crude to $105 per barrel and fanning fears of prolonged disruptions to global oil supply. Crude was last seen consolidating in the $97–100 range, reflecting a sustained geopolitical risk premium. For India, a major oil importer, persistently high energy prices heighten the risk of imported inflation and put pressure on the current account. The US dollar has strengthened on safe-haven demand, pushing the USD/INR pair to approximately 95.3 — near a record high — after the rupee depreciated 83 paise in the previous session.

Gift Nifty was trading at 23,650, down 136 points, signalling a weak open. Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, noted that "...Gift Nifty indicates a gap-down opening of around 150–200 points, suggesting that the Nifty index may open below the crucial 23,800 support zone." He added that "...any pullback rally is likely to face selling pressure near the 23,800 mark, which has now turned into an important resistance level."

On the sectoral front, the pain was broad-based in Monday's session, with consumer and realty indices falling the most — both down more than 3 per cent. Aviation, jewellery, travel, and hotel stocks bore the brunt of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Nation First" austerity call, which urged citizens to reduce fuel consumption and defer non-essential foreign travel to protect India's foreign exchange reserves.

Dr V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, cautioned that "...these sectors will bounce back smartly if crude falls sharply and the austerity package becomes irrelevant." He also flagged resilient sectors, noting that "...pharmaceuticals is the segment which is not impacted at all since the sector has inelastic demand" and also benefits from a weaker rupee.

Banking stocks also remained under pressure. The Bank Nifty declined 1.57 per cent in the previous session with above-average volumes. The index broke below both the 23.6 per cent and 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement levels of the April rally, with its RSI sliding to 43.74. State Bank of India (SBI) was among Tuesday morning's few Nifty 50 gainers, rising 0.41 per cent to ₹977.60, though analysts cautioned that sustained recovery in banking would require a move above the 54,800–55,000 resistance band.

In the IT sector, however, the picture is starkly different. Infosys plunged 2.63 per cent to ₹1,146.10, TCS fell 2.34 per cent to ₹2,337.00, Tech Mahindra was down 1.97 per cent at ₹1,428.70, and HCL Technologies shed 1.56 per cent to ₹1,176.30. SBI Life Insurance was also among the top Nifty losers, down 1.60 per cent to ₹1,854.30.

The energy and metals counters provided some relief. ONGC was the top Nifty gainer, up 3.68 per cent to ₹291.35, buoyed directly by higher crude prices. Hindalco rose 1.79 per cent to ₹1,041.80. Tata Consumer Products gained 0.57 per cent to ₹1,278.30, while Bajaj Auto edged up 0.47 per cent to ₹10,645.

Vijayakumar also pointed to capital goods as a sector worth watching, citing a "...67 per cent spurt in private capex in September last year" as evidence of a nascent recovery in capital formation — a signal that has been "...drowned in the flood of negative news." He added that demand in automobiles and renewable energy continues to support investment activity in those areas.

On the real estate front, Bengaluru-based developers Prestige Estates and Brigade Enterprises are likely to remain in focus amid evolving discussions on flexible workspaces and energy conservation. UPL may also attract attention after reporting a strong fourth-quarter performance, with net profit rising 20 per cent.

Globally, Asian markets opened higher on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei rallying over 400 points and South Korea's Kospi gaining more than 1.3 per cent, as investors attempted to look past geopolitical uncertainty. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs of 7,412 and 26,274, respectively, driven by optimism around the AI upcycle. Micron reached record levels. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.41 per cent as markets priced in inflation risk ahead of the April CPI print, which economists expect to show a 3.7 per cent year-on-year gain. India's own April CPI inflation data is due for release today and will be a key domestic trigger.

Markets will also track the outcome of a high-stakes U.S.–China summit, where Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to hold wide-ranging talks covering trade, AI, nuclear policy, and Iran. A delegation of executives from Apple, Boeing, Citi, Tesla, and Meta is accompanying Trump — one of the most significant corporate contingents to travel with a sitting U.S. president.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have continued as net sellers, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) are providing partial support. India VIX, the market's fear gauge, surged 10.17 per cent in the previous session to 18.55. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that "...as long as the market trades below the 50-day SMA (24,000/76,500), a weak formation is likely to continue," with potential downside toward 23,600–23,500 on the Nifty and 75,500–75,300 on the Sensex. He added that a move above those levels "...could trigger a technical pullback to 24,200–24,300/77,100–77,400."

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered trading and wealth-tech firm, summed up the mood succinctly: market sentiment remains "...fragile, highly headline-driven and sensitive to geopolitical developments," with crude oil, currency movement, and institutional flows expected to be the key near-term drivers.

Published on May 12, 2026