A series of well-timed market bets on falling oil prices totalling as much as $7 billion during March and April spread across multiple exchanges and types of fuel and derivatives just before major Iranian policy announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to traders, market experts and Reuters analysis of exchange data.
The size exceeds previously reported bets amounting to $2.6 billion, which have already prompted the U.S. administration to warn staff against using nonpublic information for financial benefit. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters in April, although the CFTC has yet to officially confirm a probe is underway.
Exchanges and instruments under scrutiny
Reuters could not establish who placed the bets and whether they originated in the U.S. or elsewhere. They included short positions, or bets that prices would fall, for derivatives including ICE, CME crude, diesel and gasoline futures.
The bets took place on two major exchanges that host benchmark global oil and fuel futures trade: the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Both exchanges declined to comment. The CME is investigating the trades, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Suspicious timing ahead of Trump policy announcements
Traders first spotted unusual trades on March 23. The trades were executed minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, triggering an oil price fall.
The same pattern repeated on April 7, before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran that triggered a fall of as much as 15% in benchmark ICE Brent futures. It happened again on April 17, when Iranian officials and Trump spoke about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and then again on April 21, when Trump extended the ceasefire.
Reuters and other media reported those trades on the most actively traded front-month contracts for the two global crude benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate. The value of those bets on those four days in March and April stood at around $2.6 billion, according to Reuters initial calculations.
Regulatory probes and unanswered questions
The U.S. Justice Department, CFTC and White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Published on May 7, 2026