Crude oil futures traded higher on Thursday morning as markets looked ahead to the most awaited meeting between the Presidents of the US and China.

At 9.17 am on Thursday, July Brent oil futures were at $106.15, up by 0.45 per cent, and June crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $101.68, up by 0.65 per cent. May crude oil futures were trading at ₹9722 on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹9711, up by 0.11 per cent, and June futures were trading at ₹9351 against the previous close of ₹9355, down by 0.04 per cent.

In their Commodities Feed for Thursday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said oil prices are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting in Beijing. The market could be pinning too much hope on the US-China talks yielding some positive results on Iran. Some hope that China could exert pressure on Iran to reach a deal with the US, to end the war and lead to a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, they said.

Referring to the monthly oil market report of the International Energy Agency, they said the report once again aggressively revised its demand forecasts for 2026 downward. The IEA now expects global oil demand to fall by 420,000 barrels per day year-on-year, leaving it 1.3 million barrels per day below pre-war level forecasts for 2026.

This decline is predominantly driven by the petrochemical and aviation sectors. Global oil supply is estimated to have fallen by 1.8 million barrels per day in April, bringing supply losses since February to 12.8 million barrels per day.

As a result, oil inventories continue to decline. They are estimated to have fallen by 129 million barrels in March, and preliminary numbers suggest a further 117 million barrels decline in April.

On the OPEC’s monthly oil market report, they said it showed the group’s crude oil production fell by a further 1.73 million barrels per day month-on-month to 18.98 million barrels per day in April. Persian Gulf production continues to trend lower due to the disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This data includes UAE production, as the country officially left the group only on May 1. OPEC is more constructive on demand; it still expects global demand to grow by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026.

Published on May 14, 2026