Markets ended Monday on a positive note, but a sharp intraday reversal and a record-low rupee told a more cautious story.

The Nifty 50 closed at 24,119, up 121 points or 0.51 per cent, after touching an intraday high of 24,290 — gains that were nearly halved by midday selling before a partial late-session recovery. The Sensex settled at 77,269, adding 356 points or 0.46 per cent.

The morning rally was driven by the BJP’s win in three of five state assembly elections, supportive global cues, cooling crude prices from last week’s highs, and strong April auto sales data.

Maruti Suzuki reported a 33.3 per cent year-on-year jump in wholesale volumes, while industry-wide two-wheeler sales surged 38 per cent YoY. However, the market ran into a wall near 24,290–24,300 — a zone that has capped upside repeatedly — triggering sharp profit booking within the first half-hour of trade.

The rupee fell for the fourth consecutive session, depreciating 18 paise to close at a record low, with USD/INR hovering near 94.8–95.1. A firm dollar, elevated crude, and persistent FII outflows are driving the pressure, with analysts flagging a potential move toward 95.35–95.70 in the near term.

Brent crude edged toward $111 per barrel and WTI near $105, staying volatile amid unresolved US-Iran negotiations and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. COMEX gold slipped below $4,600 per ounce and silver below $75, both near one-month lows as hawkish Fed signals effectively priced out 2026 rate cuts.

Realty led sectoral gains, rising over 2.4 per cent, followed by Metal, Healthcare, and Pharma. IT and Media were the session’s laggards.

Adani Ports and Eicher Motors topped Nifty gainers, while Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bharti Airtel bore the brunt of selling. Broader markets outperformed, with the Midcap 100 up 0.63 per cent and Smallcap 100 gaining 0.70 per cent. Market breadth improved, with 352 of Nifty 500 stocks closing in the green.

Nifty’s daily chart posted a thin-bodied candle with a prominent upper wick — the fourth such pattern in seven sessions — confirming persistent selling pressure at higher levels.

The index continues to consolidate near its 50-day EMA around 24,185, with support at 23,800 and resistance at 24,300–24,400. On the macro front, April GST collections hit a record ₹2.43 lakh crore, up 8.7 per cent year-on-year, offering some comfort on the demand side.

Going forward, US-Iran diplomatic developments remain the single biggest swing factor for crude prices and, by extension, the rupee and corporate margins.

A breakthrough could offer meaningful relief; further escalation risks the opposite. Until clearer signals emerge, the Nifty is expected to stay rangebound between 23,800 and 24,300, with the Q4 earnings season keeping stock-specific volatility elevated.

Published on May 4, 2026