Shares of Bajaj Auto hit a 52-week high of ₹10,656 on the NSE on Thursday, rising 3.2 per cent from the previous close of ₹10,319, after the company reported record quarterly revenue and resilient margins for the March quarter.

The stock later traded at ₹10,579 at 9.26 am as investors cheered strong export momentum, operating leverage benefits and upbeat management commentary on margins despite rising raw material costs.

It reported a 32 per cent y-o-y rise in revenue from operations to a record ₹16,006 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q4 FY26), driven by all-time high volumes, improved product mix and favourable currency movements.

Mixed outlook

Brokerages said the company’s earnings were supported by strong export demand, forex tailwinds and operating leverage, although concerns remain over moderating domestic demand and rising commodity costs.

HDFC Securities maintained a buy rating with a sum-of-the-parts target price of ₹11,776, valuing the core business at 24x March 2028 earnings. The brokerage said operating leverage, forex tailwinds and cost optimisation efforts are expected to help sustain margins into Q1 FY27. It added that export sales continue to improve, aided by growth in Latin America and recovery in Nigeria, while domestic growth could be supported by product interventions and rising traction in the electric vehicle segment.

Motilal Oswal reiterated a neutral rating with a target price of ₹9,965. The brokerage said Bajaj Auto has delivered healthy performance despite macroeconomic challenges, but warned that geopolitical uncertainties could weigh on exports while domestic growth may moderate in FY27. It also flagged rising input costs as a risk to margins, although it expects the company to post a 15 per cent revenue CAGR, 15 per cent EBITDA CAGR and 14 per cent profit CAGR over FY26-28.

JM Financial maintained a reduce rating with a revised target price of ₹9,600. The brokerage noted that Q4 FY26 EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points y-o-y to 20.8 per cent, aided by operating leverage and currency tailwinds, partly offset by higher raw material costs. It said domestic motorcycle demand has moderated and expects industry growth of 7-9 per cent over the next few months. While exports remain strong, the brokerage expects raw material inflation to have a 3.5-4 per cent q-o-q impact on costs, with April 2026 price hikes offsetting only around 40 per cent of the increase.

Among global brokerages, Citi maintained a sell rating and raised the target price to ₹9,300 from ₹8,000, saying Q4 results were slightly above estimates. The brokerage remained positive on exports but cautioned that domestic demand is showing signs of moderation.

Jefferies maintained a hold rating and raised the target price to ₹10,500 from ₹9,100 after the company posted stronger-than-expected earnings growth. The brokerage said India’s two-wheeler demand remains resilient and projected an 8 per cent industry volume CAGR over FY26-29, while noting that rising commodity prices could pressure margins in the near term.

Morgan Stanley retained an underweight rating and increased the target price to ₹9,259 from ₹8,920. It described Q4 as an impressive quarter, with EBITDA beating estimates by 4-7 per cent, driven by strong exports and currency tailwinds. However, it also warned that domestic demand, especially in the entry-level motorcycle segment, could weaken.

Published on May 7, 2026