Shares of Coal India surged over 4 per cent in early trade on Tuesday after the company reported a strong set of March quarter earnings. The stock traded at ₹469.55 on the NSE, up 3.76 per cent from the previous close of ₹452.50.

The company posted a standalone net profit after tax of ₹5,533.67 crore for the quarter ended March 2026, marking a sharp 75.6 per cent increase y-o-y from ₹3,148.87 crore. Revenue from operations rose marginally by 3 per cent y-o-y to ₹490.19 crore from ₹481.28 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. For the full financial year FY26, PAT came in at ₹18,863.93 crore compared with ₹17,061.56 crore in the year-ago period. The board also declared a final dividend of ₹5.25 per share.

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley maintained an “equal-weight” rating on the stock with a target price of ₹410, noting that EBITDA came in around 6 per cent above its estimates. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding OBR, was about 8 per cent higher than expectations, while PAT at ₹108 billion was 19 per cent above consensus. The brokerage highlighted that FSA volumes declined around 4 per cent y-o-y but were ahead of estimates, while e-auction volumes rose 28 per cent y-o-y though slightly below forecasts. It added that FSA realisations increased roughly 6 per cent y-o-y, driven by a better grade mix, while e-auction realisations dipped about 2 per cent. Cost of production stood at ₹1,415 per tonne, up 5 per cent y-o-y.

Jefferies retained a “buy” rating with a target price of ₹500, stating that March-quarter cash EBITDA grew 8 per cent y-o-y and was 14 per cent above its estimates, supported by better FSA average selling prices and higher e-auction volumes. The brokerage expects strong power demand due to an intense summer and weak rainfall to support volumes in FY27, while higher global coal prices could lift e-auction realisations. It also pointed out that after a 12 per cent EPS decline over FY24–26, earnings are likely to improve with a 5 per cent CAGR over FY26–28, with valuations and dividend yield remaining attractive.

Meanwhile, HSBC maintained a “hold” rating with a target price of ₹440. It said earnings beat expectations in 4QFY26 primarily due to higher other income, although restatements made y-o-y and q-o-q comparisons less straightforward. The brokerage flagged a 40 million tonne q-o-q increase in inventory and elevated stock levels at power plants, which could cap e-auction premiums. It added that while employee costs declined y-o-y, potential increases in diesel prices could push costs higher, and oversupplied domestic coal markets limit near-term earnings catalysts, though dividend yield offers support.

Among domestic brokerages, Motilal Oswal Financial Services reiterated a “buy” rating with a target price of ₹530. It said the company delivered a steady performance led by higher e-auction volumes, which accounted for about 14 per cent of total volumes, with premiums at 36 per cent in 4QFY26. The brokerage expects volume CAGR of around 4 per cent over FY26–28, with a higher share of e-auction volumes supporting net sales realisation and margins. It projects revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 5 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively, over the same period, supported by capacity expansion, increased washeries, and internally funded mining growth.

Published on April 28, 2026