Markets opened on a cautious note on Wednesday morning, with the Sensex and Nifty extending losses for a fourth consecutive session as a combination of elevated crude oil prices, a weakening rupee, and persistent foreign institutional selling kept investor sentiment fragile.

The BSE Sensex, which had closed at 74,559.24 on Tuesday, opened at 74,439.34 and was trading at 74,636.15, up 76.91 points or 0.10 per cent, as of 9.20 am. The NSE Nifty 50, which had ended Tuesday’s session at 23,379.55 — down 436 points — opened at 23,362.45 and was quoting at 23,416.50, up 36.95 points or 0.16 per cent, reflecting a muted recovery attempt after four days of heavy selling.

In Tuesday’s session alone, investor wealth eroded by an estimated ₹12 lakh crore as the Nifty broke decisively below the 23,800–24,500 consolidation band that had held for several weeks. All major sectoral indices closed in the red, with realty, defence, and IT falling the most — each shedding over 3.5 per cent.

Crude oil prices have reversed their recent cooling trend and are now trading in the $101–103 per barrel range, with Brent crude surging near $107 on concerns around Iranian supply. “The market has been discounting an early resolution to the West Asia crisis and a decline in the price of crude. Now, this appears difficult,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited. “Consequently, India’s macros are taking a hit.”

The rupee has touched a fresh low of 95.63 against the dollar, with USD/INR hovering in the 95.6–95.7 range amid elevated crude prices, firm dollar demand, and sustained foreign institutional outflows. “As the Chief Economic Advisor said, this has become a ‘live Balance of Payments stress test,’” Vijayakumar added. “The downside risk to India’s growth and upside risk to inflation has increased.”

On the global front, US CPI inflation came in at 3.8 per cent for April, above the market expectation of 3.7 per cent, dimming hopes of an early Federal Reserve rate cut. Wall Street closed lower in the previous session, with the Nasdaq shedding 0.7 per cent, while Asian markets opened broadly weak — South Korea’s Kospi fell over 2.2 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei dropped more than 220 points. Iran’s remarks that the U.S. must either accept its peace proposal or face “failure” have kept geopolitical uncertainty elevated around the Strait of Hormuz and global energy supplies.

Domestically, India’s retail inflation for April rose marginally to 3.48 per cent year-on-year from 3.4 per cent in March. While the reading was below market expectations, analysts flagged imported inflation risks given elevated crude prices. “Rising food and dining-out costs are also beginning to indicate pressure on household spending patterns,” noted Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth.

India VIX, the market’s fear gauge, surged 3.92 per cent to 19.28, extending gains for a third consecutive session and moving above all key moving averages. Elevated VIX levels have made option premiums significantly expensive and reduced the edge for options sellers. “The VIX needs to cool toward the 17–15 zone for bulls to regain confidence,” analysts at Choice Equity Broking noted.

Among the top gainers on the Nifty 50 in early trade, Asian Paints led with a gain of 3.68 per cent, trading at ₹2,597.60 against a previous close of ₹2,505.50. Tata Steel rose 1.39 per cent to ₹214.95, Hindalco added 1.21 per cent to ₹1,054.00, Adani Ports gained 0.93 per cent to ₹1,703.90, and Kotak Bank edged up 0.81 per cent to ₹379.05.

On the losing side, Power Grid declined 1.04 per cent to ₹303.10 against a previous close of ₹306.30, while Eicher Motors fell 0.99 per cent to ₹7,055.50. Bajaj Finance dropped 0.61 per cent to ₹898.65, Max Healthcare slipped 0.51 per cent to ₹1,012.55, and Axis Bank shed 0.43 per cent to ₹1,254.70.

Technically, Nifty’s RSI has slipped below 40 to 39.86, while MACD continues to reflect a bearish crossover. Key support is seen at 23,300–23,150, with resistance at 23,500–23,600. For Bank Nifty, support lies at 53,200–53,000, while resistance is pegged at 53,800–54,000. “Unless and until 23,800 is reclaimed, the bias remains bearish,” said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct.

With FIIs continuing to remain net sellers and domestic institutional investors providing only partial support, analysts advise a cautious stance. “Investors should opt for safety now. Better to remain in cash till there is clarity on crude prices. Pharmaceuticals seem to be the safe sector now,” Vijayakumar said, adding that long-term investors could slowly accumulate large banking stocks on declines.

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Published on May 13, 2026