Bharat Forge shares traded largely flat after scaling a 52-week high in early trade on Friday, following the company’s March quarter earnings, with investors focusing on strong operational growth and an improving outlook across defence, aerospace and exports.

The stock traded at ₹2,002.90 at 12.09 pm after touching a 52-week high of ₹2,044, up 2.5 per cent from the previous close of ₹1,992.90.

On a consolidated basis, the company posted revenue from operations rose 17.5 per cent y-o-y to ₹4,528 crore in Q4 FY26 from ₹3,853 crore a year earlier. Consolidated EBITDA increased to ₹774 crore from ₹671 crore, aided by stronger exports and improved operational performance across businesses.

Mixed outlook

Global brokerage Jefferies maintained its buy rating on the stock and raised the target price to ₹2,500 from ₹2,150.

The brokerage said the outlook is improving due to recovery in defence, aerospace and the US truck market, while industrial export demand is also expected to strengthen.

It upgraded FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 4-10 per cent and expects a 42 per cent EPS CAGR over FY26-28.

Morgan Stanley maintained its overweight rating with a target price of ₹1,978. The brokerage noted that consolidated EBITDA was 3 per cent below estimates, although standalone EBITDA came in ahead of expectations.

It highlighted that Bharat Forge expects 25 per cent revenue growth with a commensurate rise in EBITDA in FY27 and plans to conclude restructuring of the loss-making CDP Bharat Forge business by the end of calendar year 2027.

Citi maintained its sell rating while raising the target price to ₹1,060. The brokerage said Q4 results were slightly above estimates due to healthy exports across segments, although domestic revenue remained slightly below expectations.

Citi said aerospace and defence are likely to be the key growth drivers but added that it would wait for revenue recognition in the second half before turning more constructive, citing delays in defence orders in the past.

Kotak Securities reiterated its sell recommendation and raised the target price to ₹1,300 from ₹1,250. The brokerage said execution remains weak and valuations offer limited comfort despite expected acceleration in revenue growth. It sees improving demand trends in domestic auto segments after GST cuts, bottoming out of the US and European commercial vehicle cycles and strong growth in casting and aerospace businesses.

Motilal Oswal said the GST rate cut has helped revive the domestic auto business, while the US Class 8 truck cycle appears to have bottomed out with early signs of recovery.

The brokerage expects defence, aerospace and JSA businesses to remain key growth drivers and forecasts a CAGR of 16 per cent in revenue, 22 per cent in EBITDA and 39 per cent in PAT over FY26-28E.

However, Motilal Oswal said most positives appear priced in after the recent rally in the stock. It reiterated a neutral rating with a target price of ₹1,835, citing expensive valuations.

Published on May 8, 2026