The FMCG industry could see softening in volume growth trends in CY2026 amid elevated crude oil prices due to the West Asia crisis and early projections of below-normal monsoon.
In its latest report, Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly known as Kantar), analysed various scenarios and noted that if elevated crude prices persist, FMCG volume growth is likely to remain range-bound at 4-4.5 per cent this year. However if higher energy costs coincide with food inflation due to weather stress, then the FMCG industry volume growth could soften to 3-4 per cent, the research and insights firm added. “If energy prices stabilise closer to baseline assumptions and monsoon outcomes do not deteriorate further, FMCG volume growth is likely to edge up towards 5 per cent (from 4.5 per cent),” the monthly report titled, “FMCG Pulse Report” added.
Worldpanel by Numerator, which tracks household spends, noted that in recent quarters the FMCG industry has seen healthy topline growth with value growth ahead of volume growth. In the March quarter, the value growth was estimated at 13.1 per cent, while volume growth accelerated to 5.4 per cent.
Macro headwinds
The insights firm said that overall the volume growth stabilised at 4.5 per cent in FY26 and in a benign environment this would be expected to increase to 5 per cent over the year. “However, 2026 opens with two clear macro headwinds – energy-market volatility triggered by the geopolitical conflict, and early signs of below-normal rainfall – both of which have meaningful implications for how FMCG growth unfolds,” it added.
Despite voltalile conditions, household care led by washing liquids and floor cleaners, is expected to stand out as the most “structurally resilient sector” for the FMCG industry and will continue to see 4-5 per cent volume growth. Personal care segment is also likely to remain robust. “Liquid formats and routine-extending categories such as Body wash, Hand-wash, Face wash, and Conditioners continue to add households, while highly penetrated basics grow steadily. Personal Care is likely to grow at around 3-5 per cent in volume in 2026,” the report added.
In the food category, the report noted that Staples segment will provide volume growth, but with limited upside. At the same time, impulse food categories could face reduced frequency rather than reduced relevance. “Intense summers and lesser rainfall might give another good year for Bottled Soft Drinks; so, the sector could look at a 3-4 per cent growth,” the report added.
Published on May 20, 2026