Nifty 50 (24,056) and Nifty Bank (58,177) gained 0.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively over the past week. While the gains were modest, particularly in Nifty, the derivatives data indicates that the positive undertone seen over the previous fortnight remains intact. However, unlike the last two weeks, when the rally was driven largely by short covering, the latest positioning reflects rollover-related additions to the July series with a mild bullish bias.

FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) remained net short on index futures, although the position narrowed marginally from 2.26 lakh contracts to 2.24 lakh contracts. They also reduced net short positions on index call options by 13 per cent to 2.60 lakh contracts. However, net long positions in index puts remained elevated at 5.97 lakh contracts, indicating that institutional investors continue to maintain downside protection despite the recent recovery.

At the broader level, the positioning remained mixed. Combined net short positions on index futures increased from 64,138 contracts to 72,767 contracts. On the other hand, net short positions on call options declined sharply by 22 per cent to 1.20 lakh contracts, suggesting that traders have become less aggressive in capping upside expectations. Net put shorts also moderated from 1.48 lakh contracts to 1.34 lakh contracts, pointing to a further easing in bearish conviction.

The derivatives data broadly mirrors the divergence in price action. Nifty continued to move higher but lacked strong momentum, whereas Bank Nifty extended its outperformance. Overall, the data points to a market where sentiment remains constructive, although the rollover into the July series and the absence of aggressive long additions suggest that traders are still awaiting stronger directional cues.

Nifty 50

Nifty futures (Jul) (24,171) remained volatile last week. After opening on a subdued note on Monday, the contract came under pressure mid-week before recovering towards the end of the week. Despite the fluctuations, Nifty futures (Jul) managed to end the week marginally higher.

The increase in price was accompanied by a sharp rise in open interest (OI), with July futures OI expanding from 24.2 lakh contracts to 91.7 lakh contracts. While a substantial part of this increase can be attributed to rollover from the expiring June series, the higher price and OI indicate a mildly positive bias in positioning.

The options data also supports a constructive outlook. The Put Call Ratio (PCR) of July options stood at 1.13 at the end of last week. A PCR above 1 indicates that put writing continues to exceed call writing, reflecting a favourable sentiment among option traders.

That said, the chart shows that Nifty futures (Jul) is currently facing a resistance at 24,300. This appears to be a strong hurdle, as evidenced by the selling pressure seen on Thursday. However, if the contract breaks out of 24,300, supported by the positive undertone in derivatives positioning, it can extend the rally to 24,700.

On the downside, immediate supports are at 23,950 and 23,820, the latter coinciding with the 21-day moving average. As long as the base at 23,750 remains intact, the broader outlook will stay positive.

Strategy: Last week, we suggested buying Nifty futures (Jun) on a decline to 23,900. Since the contract is set to expire on June 30, we recommend exiting this trade now at 24,102.

For fresh positions, go long on Nifty futures (Jul) if it breaks above 24,300. Place stop-loss at 24,000. When the contract rises to 24,600, revise the stop-loss to 24,500. Book profits at 24,700.

Nifty Bank

Nifty Bank futures (Jul) (58,614), too, witnessed a sharp intraday decline on Tuesday. However, the contract recovered strongly thereafter, surpassed the previous week’s high and ended the week with a gain of 0.7 per cent.

The rise was accompanied by a substantial increase in OI, which expanded from 3.1 lakh contracts to 12.6 lakh contracts. While a part of this increase can be attributed to rollover from the expiring June series, the combination of higher price and OI points to a meaningful build-up of long positions. Compared to Nifty futures, the signal appears relatively stronger given Bank Nifty’s superior price performance.

That said, the PCR of July options moderated slightly from 0.84 to 0.79 due to relatively higher call writing. While this reflects some caution among option traders, it does not negate the positive signals from the futures segment.

Overall, the chart continues to exhibit a bullish bias. We expect Nifty Bank futures (Jul) to resume the uptrend and move towards 60,000, a key resistance level. A breakout above 60,000 can pave the way for a rally to 61,000.

On the downside, the contract can find support at 57,500, followed by 57,000. However, given the prevailing price structure and the positive undertone in derivatives positioning, a sustained decline below 57,500 appears unlikely.

Strategy: Last week, we recommended buying Nifty Bank futures (Jun) at 57,200. Since the contract is due to expire on June 30, traders can exit this position now at 58,614.

For fresh positions, consider buying Nifty Bank futures (Jul) at 58,250. Place stop-loss at 57,400 and book profits at 60,000.

Published on June 27, 2026