The ongoing conflict in West Asia and growing fears of an economic slowdown are creating both opportunities and challenges for Kashmir’s apple industry, with experts saying the sector is witnessing short-term gains in domestic markets despite mounting pressure on exports.
Experts said disruptions linked to Iran — traditionally a major supplier of low-priced apples to Indian markets — have altered market dynamics in favour of Kashmiri growers in recent months.
“The Iran-related disruptions have had a mixed but net supportive impact on Kashmir’s apple trade in the short term,” said J&K’s former finance minister and prominent economist Haseeb Drabu.
Supply vacuum
“Iranian apples earlier flooded several Indian markets, especially in southern and western states, competing aggressively on price. The disruption created a supply vacuum,” Drabu added.
According to the experts, the reduced inflow of Iranian apples forced wholesalers in states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka to increasingly rely on Kashmiri stocks, leading to a noticeable rise in wholesale prices during April 2026.
“As Iranian imports declined, Kashmiri apples were diverted more aggressively into domestic markets. This improved price realisations for growers and traders despite healthy domestic production,” Drabu said.
The Centre’s decision to restore full Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) benefits in March 2026 has also offered some relief to exporters, particularly horticulture traders affected by disruptions in West Asia.
However, experts cautioned that export prospects remain under strain amid the geopolitical uncertainty. Apple exports to Gulf countries reportedly plunged by nearly 65 per cent amid the crisis, while overall export volumes from Jammu and Kashmir had already declined by around 26 per cent over the past three years.
Economic slowdown
Experts said concerns over economic slowdown and cautious consumer spending could affect premium fruit consumption to some extent, with some consumers potentially shifting towards cheaper fruits. However, they do not foresee a prolonged structural slowdown in the apple sector.
“The apple industry may face sustained pressure on margins if geopolitical tensions and economic caution continue, but it is unlikely to witness a long-term slow-down,” Drabu said. “The sector remains resilient because domestic demand is still the backbone of Kashmir’s apple economy.”
He pointed to stable or slightly rising production levels, expansion of cold-storage infrastructure, and the government’s push for high-density plantations as long-term positives for the industry.
“Nearly 1.5 million new high-density apple trees are targeted for plantation in 2026. Combined with improving storage infrastructure, these measures are expected to strengthen the sector over time,” Drabu added.
Published on May 14, 2026