APEC Climate Centre has assessed there is a 100 per cent probability (in red vertical bars) for a El Nino to occur this year, and has classified it as a likely strong event. | Photo Credit: APEC Climate Centre, Busan, South Korea

The Busan-based APEC Climate Centre (APCC) has upgraded its outlook for El Niño to a strong event, assigning a 100 per cent probability of its persistence from July through December, with intensity peaking toward year-end.

The key Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific and serves as the benchmark for monitoring El Niño, is forecast at 1.97°C in July, well above the El Niño threshold. The index is expected to strengthen further to 3.14°C by December, lending support to projections from several climate models and researchers pointing to a potentially exceptional El Niño episode.

Prospects for India

For India and the broader South Asian region, the APCC outlook raises concerns for the south-west monsoon. Rainfall during the core monsoon season of July-September is projected to remain significantly below normal, with deficits potentially reaching 53.8 per cent, the largest shortfall indicated anywhere in Asia. The probability of normal rainfall stands at 24.9 per cent, while chances of above-normal rainfall are estimated at 21.4 per cent.

Despite the broader dry signal, regional variations are likely. Odisha and West Bengal may see near-normal rainfall, while parts of the North-East and adjoining Bangladesh could receive above-normal precipitation. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh may receive normal to below-normal rainfall. The sharpest deficits are indicated over Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, western Madhya Pradesh, South-East Rajasthan and parts of the Delhi-NCR region.

Outlook improves in October

The outlook improves during October-December, coinciding with the north-east monsoon over South India and the early rabi season elsewhere. APCC projects normal to slightly below-normal rainfall for the South peninsula against the backdrop of a strong El Niño, which has historically favoured better north-east monsoon performance.

The season may bring normal to above-normal rainfall for parts of West and North-West India. Beneficiaries include Gujarat, Rajasthan, north Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh. Northern Rajasthan, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir may experience above-normal rainfall during this period.

Published on June 16, 2026