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The idiom “It ain’t over until the fat lady sings” may not only be applicable to opera shows but also to ongoing military conflicts where warring parties are so close but not close enough to sign off on a “deal”. In the case of the Iran conflict that has been going on for more than 100 days now, the message could not be more clear: do not prematurely start the celebrations.
Just when the international community was waiting for a Sunday ceremony, word now is Friday and at Switzerland. For a person who has been anxiously waiting for the process to be over, President Donald Trump once again lashed out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for carrying out an attack on Beirut and risking an accord that was in the finishing stages.
“This morning’s attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a peace deal with Iran,” the President wrote on his Truth Social.
Lebanon has been a major sticking point in the peace process with Iran adamantly insisting that it should be a part of any comprehensive peace. President Trump has indicated that there would be guarantees that Israel will stop its offensives on all of Lebanon.
And for a country that is worried of being left in the cold in a US-Iran peace deal, Israel has made it known that it could stop targeting the capital city of Beirut but its operations in southern Lebanon would continue.
In the current scenario, Tehran sees Washington’s complicity in Israel’s offensives and has on more than one occasion threatened to walk out of the peace process. “This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace — let’s not blow it,” President Trump has said. If Lebanon is a major irritant, there are other factors that could complicate a final signature even if no one other than the parties themselves are privy to details.
The unofficial versions floating around — attributed to Iranian official and semi-official state media, unnamed sources and officials of the US — have three things in common: re-opening the Strait of Hormuz; relief from sanctions; and start of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Even here there have been divergent views on details — for instance, if Iran would be allowed to collect a fee or service charge for vessels using the Hormuz. Washington will have no truck with this idea.
On the issue of sanctions there are a number of grey areas such as easing of frozen assets or lifting punitive measures on sale of oil. One figure floating around is of $25 billion only being released, and with Tehran demanding half of the frozen assets to be released; and there is the talk of a Iran reconstruction fund of $300 billion, which would involve the US and others in the region,upon a final deal.
The biggest stumbling block would seem not in what is going to be inked later this week but in the extraction and safekeeping of enriched uranium stockpile of about half a tonne and the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, all of which Israel will be watching very closely.
It is unlikely that President Trump will give Israel any kind of veto on the outcome but will be mindful of critics and analysts who will be comparing the final result at the end of 60 days to that of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of the Barack Obama administration that President Trump walked out of in 2018 saying it was weak.
The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations
Published on June 16, 2026
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