Markets staged a strong opening on Thursday but surrendered most of their intraday gains as profit booking ahead of a long weekend left benchmark indices barely in the green. The session underscored the tug-of-war between improving macro conditions — falling crude oil prices, a firmer rupee, and easing geopolitical tensions — and trader caution on a monthly expiry day.

The BSE Sensex closed at 77,100.47, up 109.25 points or 0.14 per cent, while the NSE Nifty 50 settled at 24,056, gaining 34.35 points or 0.14 per cent. The Nifty had touched an intraday high of 24,261 in the first half before late selling dragged it more than 200 points off the peak. NSE cash market volumes were 11 per cent higher than the previous session. On a weekly basis, the Nifty posted its third consecutive week of gains, though the advance was a modest 0.14 per cent.

"India just got its biggest macro tailwind of 2026," said Sarvam Goel, Founder of Pocketful, pointing to crude oil crashing nearly 37 per cent from its May peak and tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. "...The geopolitical risk premium that crushed Indian markets for months is unwinding."

The rally was broad-based in the first half, helped by Micron's strong quarterly earnings and upbeat guidance that revived optimism around technology and artificial intelligence globally, offering early support to sentiment. However, with markets shut Friday on account of Muharram, investors trimmed positions, keeping a lid on upside.

Sectoral performance remained a mixed bag. Nifty Auto was the top performer, buoyed by softer metal prices and easing supply chain pressures. FMCG and Realty also ended in positive territory. On the other side, Oil & Gas, IT, Metal, Media, and Chemicals indices declined 0.5–1 per cent. IndiGo, M&M, and Maruti led gains within the Nifty pack, while ONGC, Hindalco, and Power Grid were the key laggards. Assam flood concerns added a separate pressure point, with Bandhan Bank slipping on worries over loan repayments in affected regions.

Broader markets underperformed. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 each declined around 0.5 per cent, and the BSE advance-decline ratio slipped to 0.65, signalling a clear tilt toward declining stocks. India's oil import bill, which surged 70 per cent year-on-year to $35.5 billion on the back of the recent crude spike, remained an overhang even as prices cooled.

The Indian rupee appreciated for the second consecutive session, gaining around 25–28 paise to close near 94.39–94.40 against the dollar, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, softer crude, and likely RBI intervention. International crude slipped below $70 per barrel, erasing virtually all of its conflict-driven gains. MCX crude futures declined over 1 per cent to near ₹6,600. Gold found some footing after recent selling, with COMEX Gold recovering from around $3,960 and MCX Gold bouncing from ₹1,40,500, though resistance at $4,000–4,025 and ₹1,42,000–1,42,500 respectively remains firm.

Technically, the Nifty continues to face a wall near the 24,200 zone. "Having failed to surpass the crucial overhead resistance of 24,200, one may expect further consolidation or minor dip by next week," said Nagesh Shah of HDFC Securities, adding that immediate support stands at 23,800.

With markets closed Friday, investors return Monday with a loaded calendar. US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data due next week are expected to set direction for global equities, the dollar, and gold. Domestically, a muted Q1 earnings season outlook and an uneven monsoon remain the variables to watch. A clean breakout above 24,200 on the Nifty could open the door to 24,400–24,500, but analysts say that move will need a fresh catalyst.

Published on June 25, 2026