Satellite pictures on Friday morning showed monsoon moisture having filled most parts of the country except parts of Rajasthan, Delhi-Haryana-Punjab, and northern fringes of West Madhya Pradesh. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in

The monsoon is expected to maintain a healthy spread across the country into early July, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projecting widespread rainfall that could provide a timely boost to kharif sowing. An extended-range outlook for June 25-July 1 said rainfall may be normal to above normal over parts of South Peninsula and North-East India, while the rest of the country may receive below-normal rainfall.

Rainfall to pick up

Conditions are expected to improve significantly during July 2-8, when rainfall is forecast to be normal to above normal across almost the entire country. The IMD has also indicated the possible formation of a cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal during the period, a feature that could reinforce the monsoon flow over the mainland. businessline had earlier reported a crucial two-week window may open from June last week to accelerate kharif sowing after weather-related delays from early in the month.

Vigorous monsoon

While the IMD’s outlook extends only to the second week of July, latest guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provides an early indication of how the rest of the month may evolve. For the week from June 29 to July 6, the ECMWF expects the monsoon to remain vigorous over Central India across Odisha, Vidarbha, north Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and much of Maharashtra, as well as along the west coast.

Konkan-Mumbai outlook

Heavy rainfall is likely to continue over Konkan-Mumbai and Goa, while Coastal Karnataka and Kerala may receive less intense but widespread rain. Below-normal rainfall during the week may be confined to eastern Tamil Nadu, north Gujarat, north-west Rajasthan (including Sriganganagar, Bikaner, and Jaisalmer) and the Sundarbans region of West Bengal.

Above-normal rain

ECMWF now extends the wet session into the week July 6-13 when rainfall may remain normal to above normal over parts of southern and western Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, and West Bengal. Above-normal rainfall is also likely over west Madhya Pradesh, parts of east Gujarat, and east Rajasthan. Rainfall may, however, remain below normal over north Rajasthan, pockets of Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh, west Uttar Pradesh, besides Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and Tamil Nadu.

Less encouraging

Beyond mid-July, the ECMWF outlook turns less encouraging. Its projections for the rest of July and into the first 10 days of August suggest rainfall deficits could emerge across over the entire western half of the country. 

Near-normal rainfall may largely be confined to East India and adjoining parts of North-West and Central India, covering Jammu and Kashmir-Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Vidarbha. In contrast, Rajasthan, Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, entire west coast, and most of the South Peninsula are projected to receive below-normal rainfall, pointing to a possible weakening of the monsoon during the latter half of July. 

Published on June 26, 2026