The rupee remained under pressure over the last week and closed at 94.55 against the dollar on Tuesday, declining over one per cent during the period. The local currency continues to trade with a negative bias amid lingering global and domestic uncertainties.

Geopolitical developments remain a key driver. Reports suggest that the US administration is reviewing an Iranian peace proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while deferring discussions on its nuclear programme. While this has offered some hope of de-escalation, uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment.

That said, the rupee has seen only marginal support from a softer dollar. Despite the dollar index declining over one per cent so far in April, the local currency has continued to remain under pressure.

Markets are also focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. However, the tone of the statement will be crucial, particularly with respect to inflation and growth outlook, as it could influence the direction of the dollar.

Foreign flows remain a drag. According to NSDL data, net FPI outflows stood at about $1.2 billion over the past week, taking total outflows to nearly $7.4 billion so far in April.

Also, the crude oil prices has been on a rise again, weighing on the rupee. Last week, Brent crude futures, currently at $105/barrel, rose nearly 10 per cent and is up by over 5 per cent so far this week.

Overall, while a softer dollar offers some relief, persistent outflows and geopolitical risks are likely to keep the rupee under pressure in the near term.

Chart 

The rupee breached the support at 93.50 last week and continued to drop. After staying flat on Monday this week, it lost 0.4 per cent on Tuesday and the price action now hints at further decline in the coming days.

From the current level, the nearest support levels can be spotted at 95 and 95.25. Given the current downward momentum, the rupee dropping to 95 is highly likely. But whether the downtick can extend to 95.25 is uncertain now because there could be a corrective rally on the back of the support at 95. 

In case the rupee starts to recover from the current level of 94.55 itself, it can rise to 94.10. The price band of 94-94.10 is a resistance. While a gain above 94 is less likely, a breach of 94 can take it higher to 93.80 or 93.60. 

How the rupee moves also largely depends on the dollar movement. As per the chart of the dollar index (currently at 98.75), it shows a bearish bias, which will remain as long as the resistance at 99.20 holds.

If the dollar index declines, it could fall to 98 in the near term. In such a case, the rupee may hold above 95 and could even see some recovery. However, if the dollar index breaks above 99.20, it may rally towards 100.25, which could push the rupee to fresh lows.

Outlook 

Although the dollar appears weak, the rupee has failed to capitalise on it as crude oil prices firm up and sentiment remains subdued. As a result, the currency could drift towards 95 in the short term.

Published on April 28, 2026