Nifty 50 and Sensex bounced back well initially last week but failed to sustain. The indices fell sharply on Thursday giving away almost all the gains and managed to close marginally higher for the week. The Nifty Bank index on the other hand got knocked down all through the week. The index fell 2.19 per cent.

The market movement last week is broadly in line with our expectation. There is not much downside left from current levels. Supports are there to limit the downside. We can expect the Nifty, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index to reverse higher and resume their upmove either from here itself or after some more fall.

FPIs sell

The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold heavily in the equity segment last week. There was a net outflow of about $1.79 billion last week. For the month of April, the equity segment has seen a net outflow of about $6.47 billion.

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Nifty 50 (23,997.55)

Short-term view: The support in the 23,800-23,750 region can continue to hold well this week as well. Near-term resistance is at 24,300 which can be tested this week. A rise past this hurdle can take the Nifty higher to 24,600-24,700 in the coming weeks. An eventual break above 24,700 will then clear the way for the rise to 25,400-25,500 in the short term.

In case Nifty breaks below 23,750, an extended fall to 23,500 can be seen. Thereafter it can rise back again and go up to 24,300-24,700 and higher levels.

The short-term outlook will turn negative only if the index breaks below 23,500. If that happens, 23,100-23,000 and lower levels can be seen on the downside.

Medium-term view: The fall last week has not disrupted the big picture. The bullish view remains intact. Nifty can rise to 26,500 in the medium term. A break above 26,500 will then trigger a rally to 28,000-30,000 in the long term.

If 26,500 caps the upside, then the broad range of 22,000-26,500 can continue to remain in play for some more time.

Nifty has to fall below 22,000 to prove our bullish view wrong.

Nifty Bank (54,863.35)

Short-term view: The fall to 54,500 happened last week as expected. There is room to see 53,600-53,500 on the downside in the near term. But thereafter we can see the Nifty Bank index rising back to 56,000 initially and 58,000-58,500 eventually in the short term. As mentioned last week, an extended rise to 60,000 cannot be ruled out.

A sustained break below 53,500 is needed to bring the index under pressure for a fall to 52,500 and 51,000.

Medium-term view: The broader bullish view remains intact. A decisive weekly close above 60,500 will strengthen the momentum for a rise to 64,000-65,000 in the medium term. That in turn will open the doors for the Nifty Bank index to target 68,000-69,000 in the long term.

The level of 50,000 is a crucial support. The bullish view will go wrong only if the index declines below this support.

Sensex (76,913.50)

Short-term view: Support is in the 76,100-76,000 region. We expect the Sensex to sustain above this support zone. A bounce from there and a subsequent rise above 77,500 can give some relief. It can then increase the chances of a rise to 78,800-79,000. An eventual break above 79,000 can then take the Sensex up to 81,500-82,000 in the short term.

The short-term outlook will turn negative only on a break below 76,000. If that happens, Sensex can fall to 74,000 or even 72,500.

Medium-term view:The big picture remains positive. A rise above 83,000 can boost the momentum. It can then see the Sensex surging to 86,000 or even 90,000 in the medium term.

From a long-term perspective, there is potential to target 94,000 and even 98,000.

This bullish view will go wrong only if Sensex declines below 71,000.

Failure to rise above 86,000 can keep the index in a wide range of 71,000-86,000 for some more time.

Nifty Midcap 150 (22,000.05)

The rise above 22,200 did not sustain last week. The Nifty Midcap 150 index touched a high of 22,409.45 and has come down sharply from there. However, the bias remains positive.

Supports are at 21,800 and 21,600-21,500. A bounce from either of these supports can take the index up to 22,200 again. A decisive break above 22,200 can then take the index up to 22,700-23,000 in the short term.

The region around 23,000 is a crucial resistance. A decisive break above 23,000 can boost the momentum. That in turn can trigger a rally to 26,000-26,500 and 28,000-28,500 in the long term.

Failure to breach 23,000 can keep the index inside a range of 20,800-23,000.

The bullish view will come under threat only if the index declines below 20,800.

Nifty Smallcap 250 (16,731.20)

The index rose to a high of 16,905.25 and then has come down from there. The breakout above 16,500 strengthens our bullish case. Key supports are at 16,500 and 16,350. The index can reverse higher again from either of these two supports. That leg of rise can take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 17,000-17,500 in the short term. An eventual break above 17,500 can then clear the way to test the crucial resistance level of 18,300.

The long-term picture looks strong for the Nifty Smallcap 250 index to target 22,500-23,000 and 24,000. A decisive break above 18,300 will strengthen the momentum and clear the way for this rally.

A fall below 14,000 is needed to negate our bullish view.

Published on May 2, 2026