International crude oil prices are expected to hover in the range of $80-90 per barrel in the second half of the 2026 calendar year as inventory levels decline and considering that normalisation of flows and replenishing stocks will take time.

Oil prices may rise to $80-90 per barrel in H2 2026 amid high global demand for filling inventories, said Jim Burkhard, Vice-President and Head of Research for Oil Markets, Energy and Mobility at S&P Global Energy.

“If flows via (Strait of) Hormuz and Gulf production do begin to recover, it will take time — and global oil inventories will continue to fall through June and July. This means, despite the fall in prices so far in June, that upward price pressure could return as inventories fall to even lower levels,” he anticipated.

Also, demand for crude oil and products to replenish inventories will be a factor later this year and in 2027. The military conflict may be over, but the market and policy impact of the Hormuz disruption continues, emphasised Burkhard.

According to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest update to the short-term energy outlook, based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most shipping traffic in the near term, falling oil inventories keep Brent prices at an average of $105 per barrel in June and July.

“Once flows through the Strait of Hormuz incrementally resume allowing producers to gradually restore shut-in production, we expect prices to fall to an average of $79 a barrel in 2027,” it anticipated.

Oil inventories

Besides, the US EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by an average of 6.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in Q2 2026 and by 7.6 mb/d in Q3 2026. Oil inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in its forecast fall to their lowest levels since 2003.

S&P’s Burkhard said the MoU signed by the US and Iran on June 17 may signal the beginning of recovery, but while it answers some questions it also creates more, he added.

“Iran has promised to provide 60 days of free passage for ships using the Strait of Hormuz, but what happens after that? The durability of the US-Iran deal — which also involves Lebanon — will be challenged by deep levels of mistrust between the two sides. Implementation will not be smooth and steady. The MoU already faces a mixed political reception in the US,” he added.

Burkhard emphasised that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the largest oil supply disruption in history. It was — and for the moment, still is — extraordinary.

“But what is surprising — even extraordinary — is the limited price reaction. The Hormuz disruption cut Gulf liquids production by 15 mb/d, most of which is crude oil. While prices surged in March and early April, they have since fallen. Among the reasons for the drop is the impact of inventory and demand management, including sharp reductions in crude oil imports to China and Japan and higher exports from the US,” he added.

Published on June 23, 2026