Though the ongoing West Asia conflict poses a risk, the global steel demand is poised to rise marginally by 0.3 per cent to 1,724 mt in 2026. This will be followed by an accelerated growth of 2.2 per cent in 2027 to reach 1,762 mt, according to the short range outlook (SRO) released by World Steel Association. However, the ongoing West Asia conflict might have a negative impact on the demand of that region in 2026.

After a protracted period of decline, all major developed economies, including the European Union, the US, Canada, Japan, and Korea, are expected to post positive growth in 2027. Consequently, global steel demand, excluding China, is expected to growth 4 per cent in 2027. While this outlook reflects data available as of mid-March 2026, the escalating West Asia conflict presents a significant stress test.

The developed world’s steel demand grew by 0.2 per cent in 2025, marking the end to a three-year consecutive decline since 2021. The outlook expects this stabilisation to pave the way for a gradual recovery, with growth reaching 1 per cent in 2026 and gaining further momentum to 2.3 per cent in 2027.

ASEAN economies

Steel demand growth across developing economies, excluding China, is projected to moderate to a 2.5 per cent pace in 2026, a significant deceleration from the roughly 5 per cent annual growth recorded in recent years. This cooling is primarily driven by a sharp contraction in the West Asia, where regional conflict has abruptly reversed previous growth expectations.

Furthermore, the forecast predicts normalisation of demand across ASEAN economies. Following a strong expansion in 2025, growth in this region is expected to temporarily soften as stockpiling activity subsides. However, the outlook for 2027 is more robust, with growth forecast to rebound to 5.1 per cent.

The ongoing West Asia conflict might have a negative impact on the demand of that region in 2026.

Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, Chief Economist, UNESID, and Chair of the Worldsteel Economics Committee, said: “Our latest forecasts validate the trajectory established in our October 2025 SRO, confirming that global steel demand is bottoming out over the 2025-2026 period. This follows a protracted and challenging phase of global structural adjustments that has suppressed demand since 2022. We are now transitioning to a path of modest growth in 2026, with a more pronounced acceleration projected for 2027. This broader recovery is being driven by distinct shifts in regional dynamics.”

China & India

In China, the rate of demand contraction is finally decelerating in 2026, while demand growth across key developing markets, most notably India, remains vibrant, he added.

The contraction in Chinese steel demand is expected to narrow to -1.5 per cent in 2026, as the housing market correction nears its bottom. Infrastructure investments in the country are expected to edge up this year, supported by local government efforts to maintain moderately strong GDP growth.

In 2027, Chinese steel demand is projected to remain essentially flat relative to 2026 levels. This outlook is grounded in the expectation that the protracted real estate sector correction will have largely run its course by 2027, mitigating the severe downward pressure that has dominated the industry since 2021.

Meanwhile, India maintains its position as the world’s fastest-growing major steel market, with demand projected to expand by 7.4 per cent in 2026 and accelerate to 9.2 per cent in 2027. This robust outlook is underpinned by broad-based strength across all key steel-consuming sectors. Growth is primarily driven by sustained, infrastructure-led construction and a thriving automotive sector, fueled by increasing freight demand.

Furthermore, a resilient capital expenditure cycle continues to bolster demand for capital goods, while nationwide rail network expansion and an affordability-driven surge in consumer durables provide additional structural tailwinds.

In Africa, a transformative shift has been underway since 2023, with clear indicators of a robust resurgence in construction activity and domestic steel consumption. The latest forecasts validate this trajectory, projecting a 3.8 per cent growth in 2026 and 4.6 per cent in 2027. This reflects an intensifying focus on large-scale urbanisation, critical infrastructure development and economic diversification efforts, positioning Africa as an increasingly significant and resilient driver of the global steel market.

The EU+UK region’s demand is expected to grow 1.3 per cent in 2026 and 3 per cent in 2027. The long-awaited return of steel demand growth in the EU reflects the impact of increased infrastructure and defence spending in the continent in combination with the expected improvement in macroeconomic conditions such as improvements in real household income. However, the region’s high exposure to energy price spikes remains a significant downside risk for 2026.

Steel demand in the US is projected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2026 and 2 per cent in 2027. This expansion is expected to be supported by strong, technology-driven and policy-backed private sector investment, along with continued public infrastructure spending.

“We anticipate a healthy recovery in the residential construction sector, driven by significant pent-up demand and gradually easing financing conditions,” the report said.

However, the pace of this rebound is likely to remain constrained by persistent structural challenges, including elevated material costs, high mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and ongoing labour shortages. Additionally, demand for durable goods may be tempered amid a softening labour market.

Published on April 17, 2026