This year, El Nino is expected to impact the weather conditions in India. As per the IMD, this monsoon season, rainfall is projected at roughly 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 870 mm. This has created uncertainties and a lot of deliberations and forums are being organized by various stakeholders to educate people on around El Nino situations and its potential impact and what can be done to address this.

It is expected that early rainfall in June will be relatively stable, however later August and September will likely experience the negative impact of the El Niño. This means many of the regions will face higher drought and heatwaves, that will negatively impact the agricultural output and the crop prices. This might be a crossroad situation where it is apprehended that the fertilizer shortage may surface this rabi, however the country is in comfortable stock position as of now.

Changing climatic patterns

In the recent past years, monsoon has become unpredictable. While the cumulative rainfall remains by and large same, the distribution has become abnormal. Late arrival of monsoon, long dry spell, sporadic rainfall, scanty rain and erratic rain within a short span of time is becoming a normal phenomenon. Some 5-7 years ago, paddy transplantation used to be over by July-August but from past 3-4 years, it is getting over by September. Both spell as well as erratic rainfall within a small span of time is impacting the farm and farmers. As we have large area under rainfed conditions, the farmers are unable to transplant their crops or sow their seeds in case of delayed monsoon; while in case of high rainfall which creates flood like situation, the transplanted saplings get washed away, leading to the capital loss (Input, labour, land preparation, fertilizer, pesticide) of the farmer. In addition, it also impacts the nutritional well-being of the households.

Significance of addressing the situation

This situation is complex and thus it requires multistakeholder engagement and efforts from all directions. Building on the past, few things can help the small and marginal farmers overcome this situation.

Firstly, there is a need to educate all the stakeholders like cluster level federation, the village organisation and the SHGs, the Gram Sabhas, the professionals and the extension workers, on this situation and the probable solutions in terms of what will work and what will not.

The country still has around one and half month time available in hand. Within this period, we need to actively engage in the village to repair the water conservation structures like ponds, dams, wells repairs their bund, desilt them so that they can conserve more water. The conserved water can save the kharif crops in case of any dry spell/draught like situation.

Secondly, it is important to carry the agriculture planning differently this time. In most of the cases, agriculture plans are made keeping in view normal monsoon and the variations (deficits/ surplus) are not accounted for. This time it should include two parts, one water budgeting and the other crop planning, based on the current year predication and the water availability. Water budgeting needs to be done to assess the available water and accordingly the crops needs to be planned. This needs to be done by the Village organization, CLF & Gram sabha and climate smart crops like pulses, millets etc. are selected. Adequate focus should be kept that the water is available for drinking, domestic use for villagers and animals first.

Promoting water harvesting

Thirdly, community institution like CLF and FPO should promote suitable crops based on land type eg. Paddy in lowland and medium land. Many of the paddy varieties like Khandgiri, Lalat etc. which are 90-125 days long require less water. In medium land (where possible) and upland pulses, oilseeds and millets need to be promoted. The CLF should target ensuring cereals, legume, oilseed, vegetables in the ratio of 1:1:1:1 at households. There is a need for shift of focus from more cereals to mix of crops that are climate responsive, nutrition sensitivite and bring economic prosperity for the farmers. Additionally, systems like seed bank and custom hiring centre will be required at panchayat level.

Water harvesting structures need to be promoted, keeping Integrated Natural Resource management in practice; to harvest and conserve water and moisture. Lastly, renewable energy will help reduce the climate risk where solar lift irrigation can be promoted as a way towards safer and greener climate approach. This will reduce our dependency on diesel and petrol or kerosine. Small machines (0.5HP-1HP) with movable pipes work well in case of Individual HHs, while community-based lift irrigation of 5HP is able to irrigate 10-15 acres of land under cash crops. Creation of assured area under irrigation helps farmers engage round the year with fields. Vegetable cultivation has the potential to give INR 1 Lakh per acre to the small and marginal farmer. Approaches like regenerative agriculture & production cluster liked with FPO-AE-BRC (Farmer producer organization-Agriculture Entrepreneur-Bio Resource Centre) will bring assured market access to the farmer bridging the forward backward linkage gap.

Thus, we need to include a multiprong strategy to approach the whole issue. While climate shifts cannot be controlled, newer kinds of agriculture can be developed. Only short-term planning will not work; we need to have a medium as well as a long-term plan looking into climate as a core pillar. Livelihood, climate and nutrition should go parallel and should be led by community collective.

The author is Integrator, PRADAN

Published on June 13, 2026