India’s total sugar production for the season 2026-27 starting October is likely to rise by 12 per cent to around 33.6 million tonnes, over current year’s 30 million tonnes, on higher cane production aided by healthy crop conditions and improved recovery, according to the local office of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The FAS New Delhi said the forecast of 33.6 million tonnes on a raw value basis, comprising of 31.4 million tonnes of crystal sugar and 62,000 tonnes of khandari, is grounded in field survey observations conducted in March 2026 across Maharashtra’s primary sugar cane growing districts, that documented healthy crop stands and favourable growing conditions.
The projected 12 percent production increase is attributable to two consecutive years of favourable monsoons that restored groundwater levels and surface water availability in major producing regions. This directly addresses sugarcane’s intensive water requirements — the primary constraint on cultivation and yield.
Monsoon boost
For 2026-27 season, the sugarcane planted and harvested area is projected to reach 5.9 million hectares representing a 2 per cent increase. Similarly, the sugar cane production is likely to rise by 2 per cent to 463 million tonnes during the year, FAS New Delhi said.
The increase in cane area and output is driven by the cumulative benefits of consecutive favourable monsoons in 2024 and 2025, which replenished groundwater aquifers and surface water reservoirs in the primary producing states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka, addressing the fundamental constraint for this water-intensive crop.
FAS New Delhi said the two-year sequence of above-normal rainfall has restored irrigation capacity that was severely depleted during the 2023 El Niño event. Field surveys across Maharashtra confirmed robust crop establishment and healthy vegetative growth, indicating farmers capitalized on improved water availability to expand planting. The projected sugar recovery rate of 9.2 percent, up from current year’s 8.3 per cent reflects enhanced sucrose accumulation resulting from adequate soil moisture throughout critical growth stages, it said.
The production forecast assumes continued favourable weather, operational continuity at processing facilities, and stable policy support through the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) mechanism. Khandsari and jaggery production is expected to increase 3 percent compared to the current year, driven by growing consumer awareness of unrefined sweeteners and shifting preferences toward traditional products perceived as healthier alternatives to refined sugar.
Outlook
The government price support mechanisms, including the FRP system and ethanol procurement guarantees under the National Biofuel Policy, continue incentivising sugarcane cultivation over competing crops such as cotton and pulses, FAS Delhi said.
For the current year 2025-26, the cane production estimated has been revised downwards from 465 million tonnes to 455 million tonnes, as excessive rainfall during late August and September 2025, disrupted the crop development in Maharashtra and Karnataka, hurting yields. Sugar production is revised downward to 30 million on a raw value basis, representing a 14 percent decrease from the initial forecast of 35.2 million tonnes. This equates to 28 million tonnes of crystal sugar with a recovery rate of 8.3 percent. Despite this downward revision, the production increased 7 percent compared to 2024-25 season.
On Thursday, trade body Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) said sugar production for the ongoing 2025-26 season, registered a 7 per cent increase to touch 27.52 million tonnes over previous year’s 25.64 millionn tonnes.
On the demand side, FAS New Delhi forecasts centrifugal sugar consumption for 2026-27 at 31 million tonnes on a raw value basis (29 million tonnes crystal value), representing a three percent increase from the current year’s estimate. For the first time in two years, domestic production in 2026-27 will exceed consumption levels, ensuring adequate supply availability, marking a significant shift in supply dynamics, it said.
Published on May 1, 2026