The Middle East conflict could result in the loss ​of around 120 billion cubic metres (bcm) of cumulative ‌liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply between 2026 and ​2030, or 15% of expected global ⁠supply, due to short-term disruptions to flows and slower capacity growth, the International Energy Agency said on ‌Friday.

* The loss will ultimately be offset by the starting of new liquefaction ‌facilities but the impact on growth ‌will ⁠be mostly this year and next and ⁠will therefore delay the effects of an expected wave of LNG supply from new projects, the IEA said ​in its quarterly natural ‌gas outlook.

* LNG supply growth came to a halt in March after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively reduced ‌the combined LNG production of Qatar and ​the United Arab Emirates by around 10 bcm for the month.

* LNG ⁠supply losses from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are expected to total around 20 bcm ‌for March-April.

* "Each month without LNG cargoes transiting the strait results in around 10 bcm of LNG supply loss," the IEA said.

* In addition, damage caused by attacks on Qatar’s LNG facilities could reduce the country’s ‌LNG output by nearly 70 bcm by 2030, assuming a ​repair period of four years.

* Delays to QatarEnergy's North Field East ⁠expansion project could also reduce LNG supply by nearly ⁠20 bcm over the 2026-2030 period.

* The IEA said the duration of the ‌closure of Hormuz will continue to affect demand this year and lead to a ​downward revision of its demand forecasts.

Published on April 24, 2026