Bajaj Auto on Monday reported a 40% year-on-year rise in total sales for April at 5.13 lakh units, driven by strong export demand.

Exports surged 83% to 2.65 lakh units, overtaking domestic volumes, which grew 13% to 2.48 lakh units, according to the company’s disclosure .

Commercial vehicle exports, primarily three-wheelers, jumped 125%, while two-wheeler exports rose 78%, highlighting a broad-based recovery in overseas markets.

Nearly 80% of the incremental volume growth in April came from exports, underlining the extent to which Bajaj Auto’s performance is once again being driven by its global business.

At the centre of this resurgence is the company’s three-wheeler segment—its most profitable export franchise—which is rebounding sharply after a prolonged slowdown in key international markets.

Analysts say the recovery in three-wheelers signals not just a cyclical upturn but a restoration of Bajaj’s core earnings engine, supported by favourable currency movements and a richer product mix.

Export engine regains primacy

Analysts at Elara Capital and Motilal Oswal attribute the surge to improving macro conditions in key export markets, including currency stabilisation in Africa, particularly Nigeria, and a recovery in Sri Lanka .

With exports now accounting for over half of total volumes, Bajaj is also strengthening its position as a net foreign exchange earner, providing a hedge against domestic cost pressures.

Domestic gaps, external risks

Domestic growth remained moderate at 13%, reflecting continued stress in entry-level segments even as the company pivots toward higher-value offerings such as CNG, EVs and premium motorcycles.

However, the renewed reliance on exports introduces risks. Any disruption in key markets or shipping routes, particularly in the Red Sea corridor, could impact momentum.

Triple-engine growth in play

Brokerages including CLSA and JM Financial see FY27 as a “triple-engine” phase for Bajaj Auto, driven by exports, clean mobility and premiumisation .

The company is expected to expand its CNG portfolio following the Freedom 125, while scaling up its electric scooter Chetak, where it holds a strong No. 2 position with around 23% market share, according to industry estimates.

Premiumisation is expected to be the third growth lever, with a new motorcycle brand planned in the ₹1.5–2 lakh segment and an expanded Triumph lineup in sub-350cc categories, benefiting from a lower GST structure.

Buyback trigger in focus

The strong export-led performance comes ahead of a key capital allocation decision. Bajaj Auto’s board will meet on May 6 to consider its March quarter results and a potential share buyback.

With surplus cash estimated at ₹15,000–₹16,000 crore, analysts see the company entering a phase where export cash flows fund both its EV/CNG transition and shareholder returns .

Shares of Bajaj Auto were trading 4.5% higher at ₹10,445, near their highest level since October 2024, with valuations approaching consensus fair value.

Published on May 4, 2026