In Tamil Nadu, the electorate has contracted sharply from 2024  | Photo Credit: JOTHI RAMALINGAM B

The 2026 Assembly elections have delivered striking headlines: West Bengal registering an unprecedented 92.47 per cent turnout and Tamil Nadu following with 85.10 per cent. Assam and Puducherry, too, have recorded their highest-ever participation. On the face of it, this suggests a decisive deepening of democratic engagement. But a closer look at the numbers, especially after the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, shows that these record percentages rest on a significantly altered base.

West Bengal illustrates this most sharply. The numbers suggest that the headline turnout of 92.47 per cent in 2026 is at least partly a function of a sharply reduced electorate. The voter roll, at 6.81 crore, is lower by about 77.4 lakh (a contraction of 10.2 per cent) compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha election, and by roughly 53.1 lakh (7.2 per cent) from the 2021 Assembly polls. Yet, in absolute terms, the number of votes polled in 2026, about 6.30 crore, is only modestly higher than the roughly 6.05 crore votes cast in both 2024 and 2021, an increase of just about 4 per cent. This indicates that while participation has indeed risen, the dramatic spike in turnout percentage is amplified by a smaller denominator. The Tamil Nadu numbers tell a more nuanced story behind the headline turnout of 85.10 per cent. The electorate has contracted sharply, to 5,67,74,436, down by about 55.6 lakh (8.9 per cent) from 2024 and 61.7 lakh (9.8 per cent) from the 2021 Assembly polls. Yet, in absolute terms, the number of voters has actually risen: 4,83,13,946 ballots were cast in 2026, compared to 4,35,60,393 in 2024 and 4,64,06,392 in 2021. This means participation has increased by nearly 10.9 per cent over 2024 and by about 4.1 per cent over 2021. The surge in turnout, therefore, is real but not as dramatic as the percentage suggests.

Kerala presents a milder version of this pattern. The electorate has declined from 2,77,49,159 to 2,71,06,059, a drop of about 6,43,100 voters, or roughly 2.3 per cent, even as turnout reached 78.13 per cent, among the highest in its history. Assam, by contrast, has seen its electorate expand from 2,33,75,087 in 2021 to about 2,50,21,408 in 2026, an increase of roughly 6.8 per cent, while still recording a peak turnout of 85.38 per cent. In cleaning up the electoral rolls, the SIR has reset, or shrunk, the denominator against which participation is measured, Assam being the lone exception. The percentage rise, therefore, seems large even if the absolute increase in votes is modest.

None of this detracts from the administrative achievement or the visible enthusiasm of voters. The danger lies in reading a statistical outcome as a political signal. That said, the exclusion of bona fide electors seems to have occurred everywhere, largely because of the hurry in which SIR was conducted. These unfortunate errors should be rectified. The SIR should be ideally be seen as an exercise that enhances the credibility of the electoral process.

Published on April 30, 2026