Nifty 50, Sensex and Nifty Bank index fell initially last week and then made a strong recovery towards the end of the week. Sensex and Nifty were up 1.7 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively. As mentioned last week, Nifty Bank index outperformed by surging over 4 per cent last week.

The strong rise on Friday has given some relief for the Nifty and Sensex. They now have to get a strong follow-through rise from here and breach the upcoming resistance to strengthen the bullish case. Nifty Bank index on the other hand can continue to outperform in the coming weeks as well.

FPIs Sell

The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continue to sell heavily. The equity segment saw a net outflow of $2.08 billion last week. June has seen a net outflow of about $6.59 billion in just two weeks. The FPIs have to come back and start buying in order to push the Indian benchmark indices to new highs.

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Nifty 50 (23,622.90)

Short-term view: The fall to 23,000 and a bounce thereafter has also happened in line with our expectation. Nifty has risen back well from around 23,070.

Immediate resistance is in the 23,700-23,800 region. Support is at 23,350. If Nifty manages to sustain above 23,350 and breaks above 23,800 it will be bullish. Such a break can take it higher to 24,100-24,200 initially and then to 24,500-24,700 eventually in the short term.

Nifty has to decline below 23,350 to come under pressure for a fall to 23,000 or 22,850.

Medium-term view: The broader 22,000-26,500 range is intact. If the rise to 24,500-24,700 mentioned above happens now, it will give some relief. It will then increase the chances of seeing 26,500, the upper end of the range, eventually in the medium term.

The broader bias is positive. Nifty can make a bullish breakout above 26,500 and rise to 28,000-30,000 in the long term. It has to decline below 22,000 to negate this bullish view.

Nifty Bank (56,814.80)

Short-term view: The rise to 56,700 happened as expected last week. Indeed, the index has risen well beyond our expected level. The outlook remains positive.

Support is in the 55,500-55,000 reigon. Immediate resistance is at 57,000. Nifty Bank index can break this resistance and rise to 58,000-58,500.

A fall below 55,000 is needed to drag the index down to 54,000-53,500 and turn the short-term picture negative.

Medium-term view: The broader outlook is bullish. Intermediate resistance is at 60,500. A break above it can take the Nifty Bank index up to 65,000 over the medium term. That will keep the upside open to target 68,000-69,000 in the long term.

The region around 50,000 is a strong support. The index has to decline below this support to prove our bullish view wrong.

Sensex (75,527.95)

Short-term view: The index has managed to sustain above 73,000 and has risen back well. Immediate resistance is at 75,730. A break above it can take the Sensex higher to 76,500-77,000 in the coming weeks. That will also increase the chances of seeing 78,000 on the upside in the short term.

Immediate support is at 74,500. Sensex has to decline below this support to fall back to 73,000 again.

Medium-term view: The chances are increasing now for the Sensex to go up within the broad 71,000-86,000 range. A strong break above 80,000, the intermediate resistance, will clear the way for a rise to 86,000.

We retain our overall bullish bias. Sensex can break 86,000 eventually and rise to 90,000 and even 94,000 in the long term.

This bullish view will go wrong only if the index declines below 71,000.

Nifty Midcap 150 (22,257.90)

The bounce last week from the low 21,698.50 keeps the 21,700-23,000 range intact. Intermediate resistance is around 22,400. A break above it can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 23,000, the upper end of the range. Failure to rise past 23,000 can drag the index down and will keep the sideways range intact for some more time.

There is no major change in the broader view. Crucial resistance is at 23,100. We expect the index to surpass this hurdle eventually. That will trigger a rally in Nifty Midcap 150 index to 26,000-26,500 initially and then to 28,000-28,500 in the long term.

The broader picture will turn negative only if the index declines below 20,800.

Nifty Smallcap 250 (17,079.10)

The index has risen back very well last week from the low of 16,602. Immediate resistance is in the 17,100-17,200 region. A decisive break above 17,200 can take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 17,600 initially. A further break above 17,600 will clear the way to test 18,000-18,300, a crucial resistance region.

The broader bias is positive. We expect the index to breach 18,300 eventually. Such a break can take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index higher to 22,500-23,000 and even 24,000 in the long term.

If the index fails to breach 17,600 from here, it can fall back to 16,600 again or even to 16,300. The short-term picture will turn negative only if the index declines below 16,000. If that happens, then a fall to 15,000-14,800 is possible. However, such a fall looks less likely at the moment.

From a long-term perspective, 14,000 is an important support. The outlook will turn bearish only on a break below this support.

Published on June 13, 2026