The new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers a speech on the day of his swearing in ceremony, at the White House in Washington, DC | Photo Credit: REUTERS

Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite index extended their fall in the first half last week. However, the news that the US and Iran could be nearing peace deal halted the fall and triggered a strong bounce towards the end of the week. If there is an unexpected negative development on the US-Iran deal front, then the equity markets can reverse lower again.

Fed watch

All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve meeting outcome this week on Wednesday. This will be the first meeting under the new chairman Kevin Warsh. So, it will be important to see his stance on the future interest rate path. High inflation in the US has already shifted the market expectation for a rate hike later this year.

Dow Jones (51,207.11)

The intra-week fall below the psychological 50,000 level did not sustain. The index has bounced back sharply from the low of 49,914. Supports are at 50,350 and 50,000.

A follow-through rise from here can take the Dow Jones higher to 52,000-52,500 in the next few weeks.

We reiterate that the region around 52,500 is a strong resistance which can halt the current rally. There are good chances to get a corrective fall to 50,000-49,000 from around 52,500. So, as the Dow Jones approaches 52,500, it is important to turn cautious rather than becoming more bullish.

S&P 500 (7,431.45)

The S&P 500 index failed in its various attempts to get a strong follow-through selling below 7,300. A rise above 7,470 from here will ease the danger of a fall below 7,300 that was cautioned last week. It will then bring back the bullish chances of seeing 7,700-7,800 going forward.

The index has to get a sustained break below 7,300 for a fall 7,150-7,130. For this fall to happen, the S&P 500 index has to remain below 7,470. We will have to wait and see.

NASDAQ Composite (25,888.84)

The index has risen back sharply from the low of 24,980.38 recovering all the loss. Support is around 25,650. If the index manages to sustain above this support, a rise to 26,350 or 26,500 is possible this week.

Failure to rise past 26,500 and a subsequent fall below 25,650 will be bearish. It will confirm that a top is in place. In that case, there is a danger of seeing 24,500-24,000 on the downside going forward.

As such the price action in the coming days is going to be very crucial for the NASDAQ Composite index.

Dollar index

The dollar index (99.80) is struggling to get a sustained rise above 100. At the same time, it is not getting strong sellers also to drag it lower. The short-term trend is up. Important support is around 99.40. As long as the index stays above this support, the uptrend will remain intact. That will keep the chances high for the dollar index to breach 100 decisively and rise to 100.70 and even 101-101.20 in the coming weeks.

This rise will get negated only if the index declines below 99.40. If that happens, a fall to 98.80 can be seen.

Treasury Yield

The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.48 per cent) witnessed a sharp fall on Thursday following the strong decline in oil price.

The resistance at 4.6 per cent has held well and capped the upside for now. However, good support is around 4.4 per cent. If the yield sustains above this support, it can rise back to test the resistance at 4.6 per cent again.

From a medium-term perspective, a decisive break above 4.6 per cent will be bullish to see a rise to 4.8 per cent. We will have to wait and see if the trigger for this rise is coming from the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

The short-term picture will turn negative only if the yield declines below 4.4 per cent. If that happens, a fall to 4.3 per cent and even lower can be seen.

Published on June 13, 2026