For most Indians, the daily plate is reassuringly familiar: rice or wheat at the centre, a dal beside it, and a narrow band of vegetables — potato, onion, tomato, brinjal, okra and leafy greens like palak. That pattern, shaped in the decades after the Green Revolution, has done more than define consumption; it has also shaped what India grows.
It helped push the country from a largely rain-fed farming system towards irrigated rice and wheat, steadily converting large tracts once sown to millets and other hardy crops.
But the same transition also narrowed crop diversity. The pressure of the rice–wheat model has not remained confined to irrigated belts. Rainfed regions have increasingly been nudged to imitate this pattern, often at odds with their ecological realities. Today, rice and wheat overwhelmingly anchor the foodgrain economy, while traditional rain-fed crops such as millets, pulses, oilseeds occupy a much smaller share of cultivated land. That change has altered the ecological balance of Indian agriculture.
The transformation of cropping patterns closely mirrors the expansion of irrigation. Net irrigated area in India has risen from about 21 million hectares in 1950-51 to 79.3 million hectares in 2022-23. Rice and wheat together covered about 40.6 million hectares in 1950-51 and about 78.0 million hectares in recent years, so their combined area has risen by roughly 38 million hectares.
Yet the irrigation system itself rests heavily on groundwater, which has increasingly extended into traditionally rainfed regions. Source-wise statistics show tubewells accounting for nearly half of irrigated area and other wells (largely traditional open wells) adding further share, taking groundwater-based irrigation to over 60 per cent. India is also the world’s largest groundwater user, with an estimated annual withdrawal of about 251 km³ — more than a quarter of global groundwater withdrawals. Water-intensive crops have rendered surface irrigation inadequate.
Sustainability concerns
The question is whether this structure can endure when water itself becomes uncertain.
Rice and wheat are largely anchored in irrigated ecosystems, while pulses, oilseeds and many millets continue to depend on rainfed regions. Vegetables, increasingly cultivated in peri-urban belts, rely heavily on groundwater and intensive input use. The result is a a deepening dependence on irrigation and chemical inputs.
Inputs have changed the very nature of farming. Fertilizer consumption in India has risen from less than one million tonnes in the early 1950s to nearly 30 million tonnes today — a near forty-fold increase. The intensity of use has increased sharply alongside this growth. Pesticide use, while uneven across crops, is concentrated in certain systems— particularly vegetables grown in peri-urban belts. These inputs helped sustain productivity, but have also come at a cost to soil health, groundwater quality and food safety.
Meanwhile, agriculture continues to sustain millions of smallholders, yet farm incomes remain uncertain with rising input costs, climate change and opaque markets. NSS data are sobering: in the 59th round, 40 per cent of farmer households said that, given a choice, they would take up some other career, and 27 per cent said farming was not profitable. Food security measured in aggregate tonnes masks deeper stresses within the rural economy.
India’s agricultural system works today. The question is whether it is resilient to shocks. With rising climate variability, erratic rainfall and growing pressure on groundwater, even two weak monsoons could strain the cereal-centric systems that underpin food supply.
The Supreme Court has recently urged the Union government to incentivise diversification away from paddy and wheat, while the Union Agriculture Minister last year announced expanded pulses procurement to strengthen domestic production.
These signals point to a pragmatic path forward: not to undo the gains of the Green Revolution, but to restore balance. Expanding institutional demand for millets and pulses through public distribution systems and school meals can provide predictable markets for farmers. Reorienting fertilizer subsidies towards balanced nutrient use, along with stronger processing and value chains, can make diversification both viable and sustainable.
The writer is former Deputy Managing Director, Nabard. Views are personal
Published on May 9, 2026