Forecasts until Saturday indicate a hesitant revival of the monsoon over Kerala-Karnataka coasts (in light green to corner left). Rains are expected also over East India and parts of North-West India, partly from incoming western disturbances. | Photo Credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com

Dry westerly winds sweeping in from across the international border dominate north and north-west India, blocking south-easterly monsoon flow from the Bay of Bengal and keeping its seasonal advance at a standstill. Forecasts, however, indicate a tentative revival of rainfall along the west coast during the coming week.

Monsoon stalls 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday that the northern limit of the monsoon remained unchanged for a week, passing through Harnai and Solapur in Maharashtra; Hyderabad; Bhadradri and Kothagudem in Telangana; Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh; Paradeep and Baripada in Odisha; Purulia in West Bengal; Dhanbad in Jharkhand; and Muzaffarpur in Bihar.

The IMD expects conditions to remain favourable over the next four to five days for the monsoon to advance into more parts of Maharashtra; remaining areas of Karnataka; Telangana; and Andhra Pradesh, as well as West Bengal; Odisha; Jharkhand; Bihar; and parts of south Chhattisgarh, where it has established its presence/

Seasonal trough 

A positive development is establishment of crucial seasonal trough stretching from west Rajasthan to the plains of West Bengal through north-east Rajasthan; north Madhya Pradesh; south Uttar Pradesh; Bihar; and Jharkhand. The trough persisted on Monday and will serve as the key pathway through which moisture-laden south-easterlies from the Bay would potentially penetrate Central and North-West India.

No low-pressure area

A stronger monsoon push requires formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay to energise and deepen the moist south-easterly flow. Current forecasts offer little support for such a system through the remainder of June. While some weather models indicate weak wind convergence along the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast, they show no significant development capable of sustaining widespread rain-bearing systems over eastern India.

Adding to the uncertainty are unfavourable upper-air features, including troughs and a western disturbance traversing the region on Monday. These are likely to inhibit the formation of a meaningful Bay system in the near term, delaying any decisive advance of the monsoon into Central and North-West India. 

Published on June 15, 2026