Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index fell over 2 per cent each last week. We had expected the Sensex and Nifty to make a bullish breakout of their range and rise. This view has gone wrong. The fall last week has turned the short-term picture slightly negative. The benchmark indices have to rise immediately from current levels and breach their near-term resistance. Only then can they get some relief. Failure to do so will keep them vulnerable to fall more in the short term.

FPIs sell

The foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to sell Indian equities. They pulled out about $1.34 billion from the equity segment last week. There has been a net outflow of about $2.84 billion so far this month.

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Nifty 50 (23,643.50)

Short-term view: Key resistance is in the 23,900-24,100 region. As long as the Nifty stays below this resistance, the bias will remain negative. A break below 23,600 can trigger a fresh fall to 23,100-23,000 initially. A further break below 23,000 will then increase the danger of seeing 22,400 on the downside.

To avoid this fall, Nifty has to sustain above 23,600 and breach 24,100. Only then it can get some relief and rise to 24,700.

Medium-term view: The fall last week has not disrupted the big picture. For now, the broad 22,000-26,500 range is intact from a medium-term perspective.

We retain our bullish bias on the Nifty to break above 26,500 eventually. Such a break can take it up to 28,000-30,000 in the long term.

Nifty has to decline below 22,000 to prove our bullish view wrong. Only then the outlook will turn bearish, and the downside will open up for a fall to 21,000-20,000.

Nifty Bank (53,710.35)

Short-term view: Contrary to our expectation, Nifty Bank index declined below 53,700. However, it has managed to bounce back from the low of 53,191.60.

Important resistance is at 55,500. The index has to breach this hurdle to get a breather. If that happens, a rise to 57,500-58,000 is possible.

But failure to rise above 55,500 from here can be bearish. In that case, the Nifty Bank index can fall to 52,500 or even 50,000.

Medium-term view: The broader picture remains positive. We retain the bullish view of seeing a rise to 64,000-65,000 in the medium term. A rise above 60,500 can clear the way for this rise. The fall last week is going to delay this rally. From a long-term perspective, Nifty Bank index has potential to target 68,000-69,000 on the upside.

Our bullish view will come under threat only if the index declines below 50,000. If that happens, a fall to 49,000-48,000 and even lower levels can be seen.

Sensex (75,237.99)

Short-term view: Against our expectation, Sensex declined below 76,000 last week. This has turned the short-term outlook negative. There is room for a fall to 72,900-72,700. Thereafter, we see good chances for a rise back to 76,000 and higher.

The region around 77,000 will be an important resistance now. Sensex has to rise past this resistance to turn the outlook positive and revisit 78,000 and higher levels.

Medium-term view: For now, the broad 71,000-86,000 range is intact. As long as the Sensex stays above 71,000, the bias will remain positive to get a bullish breakout above 86,000. Such a break can take the Sensex higher to 90,000 initially. It will also keep the upside open to target 94,000 over the long term.

Our bullish view will go wrong only if the Sensex declines below 71,000. In that case, 69,000 and lower levels can be seen.

Nifty Midcap 150 (22,257.95)

Nifty Midcap 150 index fell sharply in the first half of the week and made a low of 21,899.20. But thereafter, it bounced back well recovering some of the loss. The near-term outlook is slightly negative. Failure to get a strong follow-through rise from here can drag it down to 21,700-21,600. However, a fall beyond 21,600 is unlikely.

We can expect the Nifty Midcap 150 index to sustain above 21,600 and rise back to 22,500 again. Broadly, for now, 21,600-23,100 can be the trading range. The bias remains positive. As such, we retain our view of getting a bullish breakout above 23,100 eventually. Such a break can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 26,000-26,500 initially and then to 28,000-28,500 eventually in the long term.

The big picture will turn negative only if the index declines below 20,800.

Nifty Smallcap 250 (16,722.90)

The rise to 17,700 did not happen. On the contrary, the index tumbled over 4 per cent giving back all the gains made in the previous week.

Support is in the 16,500-16,450 region. We expect the index to sustain above this support zone and bounce back. A rise above 17,000 will give some relief and take the Nifty Midcap 250 index up to 17,600-17,700 in the short term.

The sharp fall last week has not changed the big picture. Our bullish view still remains intact. Crucial resistance is at 18,300. A break above it can boost the momentum. It will then clear the way for a rally to 22,500-23,000 and even 24,000 in the coming months.

The Nifty Midcap 250 index has to decline below 14,000 to turn the outlook bearish. But that looks unlikely in the absence of any new negative trigger.

Published on May 16, 2026