Geopolitical events have a significant impact on the digital threat environment. In recent years, conflicts in the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and across the globe have redefined the threat landscape with a surge in cybercrime, state-sponsored espionage and destructive cyberattacks, and hacktivist-led website defacements and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks often designed to disrupt Western organizations and NATO alliance members.

International foreign policy pertaining to these conflicts has driven the intensity of hacktivist activity and catalyzed new alliances among diverse groups that pose threats to critical infrastructure. In May 2024, international cyber agencies warned of pro-Russia hacktivists targeting internet-exposed industrial control systems (ICSs) in European and U.S.-based critical infrastructure. International Monetary Fund (IMF) leaders assess the probability of a severe systemic cyber incident that undermines macrofinancial stability is now higher due to geopolitical tensions.

Business and cybersecurity leaders are preparing to manage cyber risks stemming from geopolitical events. The vast majority of business and cybersecurity leaders believe that geopolitical instability will lead to a catastrophic cyber event in the near future, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Cybersecurity Outlook for 2023. In 2024, the WEF found 72% of leaders were factoring geopolitical events into their cyber risk management, while almost a third of chief information security officers (CISOs) had increased their use of threat intelligence reports and strengthened their incident response plans (IRPs).

Major elections in 2024 highlighted the heightened risks of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled deepfake synthetic video, traditional disinformation and misinformation campaigns, and phishing attacks aimed at disrupting democratic processes. The growing convergence of e-crime, nation-state and geopolitical events also complicates the analysis of threat-actor attribution and motivations.

Furthermore, increasingly interconnected global supply chains make it vital for organizational leaders to monitor how evolving events impact risk exposure in their regional areas of interest. This is why organizational leaders need insightful, concise, and contextualized analysis of geopolitical events and their impact on cyber threats to cut through the deluge of information. Leaders can then proactively mitigate cyber risks to their organization and anticipate their exposure to events that might impact their remote operations, vendors, partners and merger and acquisition interests.

Intel 471 Cyber Geopolitical Intelligence is a new collection, analysis and reporting service that merges our existing leadership in human-led analysis of cybercrime with regional experts who have decades of experience in geopolitical intelligence. We’re launching Cyber Geopolitical Intelligence to arm customers with insights about political activity focused on hostile regions, which include China, Iran, and Russia, and insights into their impact on the complex cyber threat environment, and influence on state and non-state actors in cyberspace.

Significant geopolitical events can include regime changes, trade and territorial disputes, regional conflicts and new policies, which are distilled into concise reports enriched with analytical contextualization that help organizational leaders understand and mitigate emerging risks to operations in regional areas of interest. Intel 471’s Cyber Geopolitical Intelligence brings a thoughtful approach that addresses key intelligence gaps and shines a light on the intersection between geopolitics, cybercrime, and nation-state activity.

Furthermore, Intel 471’s Cyber Geopolitical Intelligence examines the role of cyberspace in geopolitical power dynamics. It analyzes how state leaders use cyber capabilities to achieve strategic objectives, including espionage, offensive cyber operations, and information warfare. It also considers the potential for cyberattacks to escalate into real-world conflicts or to undermine international trust and cooperation.

With Intel 471 Cyber Geopolitical Intelligence, government and organizational leaders can today begin incorporating geopolitical events into their cyber risk management and incident response plans to improve their decisions about cybersecurity investments, policies, and strategies.

To learn more about intel 471’s Cyber Geopolitical Intelligence, contact us.