The ups and downs of AI’s influence on the economy were a hotly discussed topic at this year’s meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), with the technology’s volatile nature creating uncertainty for global markets.
The disruptive power of the technology in security, labour markets with job displacement, environmental impact and more is already enough to fear, but at the top of concerns for the world’s central bankers is its impact on the global economy, whether AI does well or not.
“If AI overdelivers, it will impact financial stability. If AI underdelivers, it will impact financial stability,” said Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Slok at one of the main panels during the annual meet in Portugal.
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A successful AI could result in major unemployment and create major instability in the economy, as nobody can afford to spend anymore. However, if AI fails, the major investments in it will also fail, creating economic issues.
“The internet proved to be better than anybody imagined, created whole new businesses, but we still got the dotcom bubble,” said Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem.
“It doesn’t mean there can’t be a period where the market gets ahead of itself, and you see an entrenchment.”
While bankers at the meeting acknowledged that AI could bring about significant improvements to most aspects of life, the fear of disruption was also a key talking point in every discussion, including immigration and climate.
“This is the biggest time of consequence to each of our economies, I think, in our lifetime,” said Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh.
“Who knew when the internet was born that the internet was going to create a million and a half jobs as Uber drivers? We are in the first to second inning of this revolution.”
Automation is already majorly prevalent in finance, running most trading functions. However, as seen by Reuters, Professor Itay Goldstein of the University of Pennsylvania said the tool could also manipulate financial bubbles to profit on both sides.
“Something that is even more advanced and potentially more disturbing is the ability of these algorithms to coordinate on a manipulative path of prices,” Goldstein said.
“These algorithms indeed manage to achieve this kind of manipulation, creating bubbles leading to crashes, and this, I think, has more significant implications for financial stability.”
AI stocks are already bubbling, estimated to have added 1 percentage point to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the US alone, according to Slok.
“The scale and pace of the current AI investment boom, accompanied by expectations of large productivity payoffs, bear resemblance to these precedents, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term,” said the Bank for International Settlements in a report.
AI is also highly present in bank operations and could be a great tool in the lending space, with credit analysis and funding borrowers. However, when it comes to defending against new AI threats, only the wealthiest firms and nations will have a chance, creating a divide between banks.
Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden said that some form of insurance scheme for failing banks could be the solution.
“In a cyber context, do we need systems that allow one institution to pick up another’s basic functions during disruption?” she said.
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Daniel Croft
Born in the heart of Western Sydney, Daniel Croft is a passionate journalist with an understanding for and experience writing in the technology space. Having studied at Macquarie University, he joined Momentum Media in 2022, writing across a number of publications including Australian Aviation, Cyber Security Connect and Defence Connect. Outside of writing, Daniel has a keen interest in music, and spends his time playing in bands around Sydney.

























