With no end in sight to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the two nations currently find themselves embroiled in a curious episode of competing ceasefires that says much about the current state of the war.

This ceasefire saga revolves around Russia’s Victory Day holiday on May 9, which marks the Soviet contribution to the allied victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Since the beginning of his reign more than a quarter of a century ago, Vladimir Putin has transformed Victory Day from a solemn day of remembrance into a muscular celebration of Russian nationalism.

Each year, the holiday climaxes with a military parade on Moscow’s Red Square. Many people assume this practice dates back to the USSR, but the Soviet authorities only actually staged four Victory Day parades between 1945 and 1991. The large-scale annual parades of recent decades are in fact a twenty-first century phenomenon that is closely associated with Putin and is widely seen as the ultimate symbol of his quest to revive Russia’s superpower status.

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Putin’s strong personal associations with the Victory Day parade make Russia’s current predicament all the more embarrassing. With Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles now striking targets deep inside Russia with alarming frequency, the Kremlin was recently forced to dramatically scale down this year’s festivities.

Officials announced last week that due to security concerns, there will be no military hardware at all on Red Square for Victory Day. The holiday will proceed, but participation will be limited to military units marching on foot through central Moscow without the usual accompaniment of tanks, armored vehicles, and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Even this downgrade was apparently not enough to assuage Putin’s fears of a Ukrainian attack. He also took the unprecedented step of calling US President Donald Trump to propose a holiday ceasefire, presumably hoping the American leader would use his influence in Kyiv and persuade Ukraine to guarantee the safety of his parade. Putin’s attempt to enlist Trump’s help sparked widespread derision, including from many inside Russia.

When this initial ceasefire initiative fell flat, Moscow announced its intention to declare a unilateral Victory Day ceasefire covering the two-day period of May 8-9. Kremlin officials stated that Ukraine would also be expected to abide by this holiday truce, and threatened to launch a “massive missile strike on the center of Kyiv” if the Ukrainian authorities failed to do so.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s response was exactly what you might expect from the leader of a nation that has stood up to its far larger neighbor for more than four years. Rather than rejecting Russia’s ultimatum or allowing himself to be intimidated, Zelenskyy called Putin’s bluff with a unilateral ceasefire proposal of his own.

Ukraine’s alternative ceasefire is set to start at midnight on May 5, two days before Russia’s suggested truce, thereby theoretically extending the break in fighting to four days. “We will act reciprocally starting from that moment,” Zelenskyy stated.

The message to Moscow is crystal clear: Putin can now either agree to Zelenskyy’s ceasefire suggestion or accept responsibility for the failure of his own proposed pause in hostilities. Either way, the Kremlin dictator risks suffering a further loss of face.

Zelenskyy clearly senses Putin’s mounting discomfort and made sure to heap more humiliation on his Russian adversary. “It is time for Russian leaders to take real steps to end their war, especially since Russia’s Defense Ministry believes it cannot hold a parade in Moscow without Ukraine’s goodwill,” he noted while announcing Ukraine’s ceasefire plans.

There may well be further twists and turns in this tale of escalating ceasefires during the coming few days. At this stage, the episode has already served to illustrate the changing dynamics of an invasion that began in 2022 with most experts predicting a rapid and complete Russian victory. Four years on, Ukraine has become a self-confident and formidable fighting force, while Putin is no longer able to ensure the safety of his own flagship parade in the heart of Russian capital.

Victory Day was supposed to be an opportunity for Vladimir Putin to project strength. Instead, this year’s scaled back parade is exposing Russian weakness and provoking awkward questions about the wisdom of invading Ukraine. The Kremlin may have hoped that by issuing a ceasefire ultimatum, they could regain the initiative and protect what remains of Putin’s dignity. Yet again, however, they appear to have underestimated Ukraine.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.

Image: A view shows empty Red Square on Victory Day, which marks the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, amid the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2020. (REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov)