SUMMARY

India is likely to see an unusually wet start to the pre-monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting above-normal rainfall across the country in May 2026. According to the latest outlook, rainfall during the month is expected to be more than 110% of the Long Period Average.

The Long Period Average for May rainfall, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 64.1 mm for both North India and the country as a whole. The forecast suggests most parts of India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, which could bring some relief from rising temperatures and ease early-season heatwave conditions.

The IMD, however, said the rainfall distribution is likely to be uneven. While large parts of the country may receive ample showers, some pockets of east and northeast India, along with east-central regions, may get below-normal rainfall. This variation could affect agriculture planning, especially for crops that depend on early seasonal rain.

In the short term, the weather office has warned of intense weather activity in several regions. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, along with parts of northeast India, are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40-60 kmph until May 5. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely in these areas, which may lead to localised flooding and disruptions.

Similar conditions are forecast in other parts of the country. The Western Himalayan region, the plains of northwest India and adjoining central regions are likely to see isolated thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds between May 3 and May 6. Eastern India and the east coast states are also expected to witness storm activity during the same period.

Meteorologists said such weather patterns are typical of the transition from spring to the southwest monsoon, though the scale and intensity of rainfall this May could be higher than usual. While above-normal rain may improve soil moisture and support short-term water availability, intense spells in a short period could also cause urban flooding and crop damage. The IMD has asked state authorities and residents to follow local weather advisories, particularly in areas prone to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Published on: May 2, 2026 7:45 AM IST