Kerala Election Results 2026: The numbers will start telling their story shortly. Counting of votes for all 140 Kerala assembly seats begins today. and with it, the answer to the question that has defined this election: can Pinarayi Vijayan do what no Kerala chief minister has done before?

Kerala has swung between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with near-clockwork regularity for decades. Vijayan shattered that pattern in 2021, winning 99 of 140 seats in a result that stunned even his own camp. A second consecutive win would be unprecedented — and would cement his standing as the most dominant political figure in the state's modern history.

Exit polls, almost unanimously, say that moment is not arriving today.

What the polls are projecting

Every major exit poll has handed the UDF a clear lead. India Today-Axis My India projects the Congress-led front winning 78–90 seats against the LDF's 49–62. Times Now-JVC and Matrize both forecast the UDF at 72–84 seats. Peoples Pulse places it at 75–85. The Poll of Exit Polls — an aggregation of all surveys — settles on UDF: 77, LDF: 59, NDA: 2.

Today's Chanakya projects a narrower margin: UDF at 69 seats, LDF at 64, with a margin of error of ±9 — a spread that keeps the contest technically alive. In vote share, the survey estimates 40 per cent for UDF against 38 per cent for LDF, with the BJP-led NDA projected at around 20 per cent and seven seats.

The outlier is Peoples Insight, which gives the NDA 10–14 seats — a figure that, if it holds, would mark a significant BJP breakthrough in a state where the party has historically struggled.

The LDF's defence

Vijayan has not conceded the narrative. After casting his vote, the Chief Minister said, "False propaganda cannot defeat the LDF… We are with the people, and the people are with us." The LDF has campaigned on its welfare record, pushing back against what it calls orchestrated anti-incumbency. For Vijayan, today is a referendum on governance — and he is betting the electorate agrees.

The UDF, led by VD Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala, has made the opposite argument: that the state's instinct for alternation, combined with governance lapses under the LDF, will turn the tide. They are counting on Kerala to revert to type.

Seats to watch

Several constituencies carry more weight than others today.

In Dharmadam, Vijayan himself is on the ballot, seeking another term in his Kannur bastion. He won the seat in 2021 by more than 50,000 votes. The UDF has fielded VP Abdul Rasheed against him.

Nemom, in Thiruvananthapuram, is a three-cornered fight between CPI(M)'s V Sivankutty, BJP Kerala President Rajeev Chandrasekhar, and Congress candidate KS Sabarinadhan. The seat has history: it was the only constituency to elect a BJP MLA in 2016, before Sivankutty flipped it for the LDF in 2021.

In Palakkad, film personality Ramesh Pisharody contests for the UDF against BJP state general secretary Sobha Surendran and LDF-backed Independent NMR Razak — a triangular contest in a seat the UDF retained narrowly in 2021.

Aranmula pits sitting Health Minister Veena George, seeking a third term, against Youth Congress leader Abin Varkey and BJP veteran Kummanam Rajasekharan. George won with over 74,000 votes last time.

And in Peravoor, former Health Minister KK Shailaja — who won Mattannur in 2021 with a record majority of 60,963 votes — has been fielded by the LDF against three-time Congress MLA Sunny Joseph, who has held the seat since 2011.

A word of caution on the polls

Exit polls got the direction right in 2021 but missed the scale — most projected 104–120 seats for the LDF; the actual number was 99. They survey voters as they leave booths, offering a directional read rather than a precise count. Kerala, with its sharp swings and complex three-way arithmetic, has a history of confounding predictions.

With 2.69 crore eligible voters — including 1.38 crore women and 277 transgender voters — the electorate is large enough for surprises.

The counting begins shortly. The pattern, or the exception to it, will be known soon.

Published on: May 4, 2026 7:09 AM IST